OMAHA (DTN) -- Moderate to heavy rain and snow for the hard red winter wheat area of the central plains, favorable conditions for the soft red winter area of the Midwest, dryness for the Northern Plains, chance of showers for Brazil, weekend rains for Argentina, temperatures beginning to moderate for Ukraine and Russia and extreme cold weather continuing to push west into Europe are the main weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

Moderate to locally heavy rain and snow today and tonight, except in the extreme southwest where it will be drier. Snow may combine with strong winds leading to blizzard conditions in parts of the northwest and north growing areas. Precipitation, whether it's rain or snow, will benefit the winter wheat crop. Northwest Oklahoma already saw 4 inches of heavy rain from thunderstorms overnight. On average, 3/4 to 2 inches of precipitation are expected from this system. Some areas could get more than a foot of snow. Snow, wind and cold weather will stress livestock, especially in northwest to north-central areas. The temperatures behind this system may be colder, but not very cold, as there is no significant Arctic air behind this event.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT AREA

Mainly favorable conditions for the soft red winter wheat crop of the east and south Midwest and the Delta at this time. Dryness is still a concern for the corn and soybean areas of the northwest Midwest. The region from northern Iowa northward may miss most (if not all) of the precipitation associated with the central Plains storm as it comes east today and Saturday. Nebraska, however, could still get 6 to 12 inches of snow from this storm.

DRY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

No significant chance for precipitation in the Northern Plains during the next seven days. Temperatures may briefly fall to near or slightly below normal early next week before moderating again and returning to above normal.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL

Mainly dry and hot weather in Brazil from Parana to Rio Grande do Sul continues to stress crops while rain in the far north may affect harvests. There is a chance for showers reaching RGDS crop areas during the next few days, but there is also a chance that these showers would be disappointing. The best chance for rain to reach soybean areas of northwest RGDS may be with a strong cold front expected to move in later next week. Until then, we will watch the southern RGDS activity to see if it can move northward enough to give the major soybean areas significant showers.

WEEKEND RAINS FOR ARGENTINA

A new round of showers is expected to develop during the weekend in Argentine key corn and soybean areas. Rainfall from this most recent event has so far been disappointing over east Cordoba and Sante Fe crop areas. Rain is still needed to maintain current yield forecasts for late-planted crops, especially second crop soybeans.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR UKRAINE, RUSSIA

The low temperatures Friday morning averaged minus 8 to minus 23 F (minus 22 to minus 31 C) across north and central Ukraine and the central region of Russia. It was coldest in west and north areas. Lows were 6 to minus 3 F (minus 14 to minus 20 C) through southern South Ukraine, and central and south Moldova this morning. Temperatures are expected to moderate during the weekend. The long-range charts suggest more cold weather later next week, but the early call on this is not as cold as this week has been. This extreme cold event is likely to contribute to above-average winter kill this season, especially when combined with the very dry fall in parts of Ukraine. However, the extent of the damage will not be known until spring when wheat begins or fails to green up.

EXTREME COLD PUSHES WEST INTO EUROPE

The extreme cold weather from Ukraine/Russia will continue to work its way well into Europe during the weekend. Lows this morning have fallen below zero F (minus 18 C) through much of Poland and a part of east-central Germany. The subzero F cold will continue and expand into Germany and possibly even eastern France during the weekend. This puts winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops at risk. The highest risk would be in Poland, Germany and Romania, depending on snow cover, but there is at least some risk in France as well.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@telventdtn.com

(CZ)

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