Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Monday 03/15/10

Warming Trend In Australia

Temperatures in Australia show a consistent warming trend, and scientists there are concerned over the implications of this tendency. --Bryce

Climate report shows Australia getting warmer

* Records show all parts of Australia are heating up

* Report released at time of rising climate scepticism

* Nation faces more warming, rising seas, changes to rainfall

By Michael Perry

SYDNEY, March 15 (Reuters) - Australia's top scientists on Monday released a "State of the Climate" report at a time of growing scepticism over climate change as a result of revelations of errors in some global scientific reports.

The scientists said their monitoring and research of the world's driest inhabited continent for 100 years "clearly demonstrate that climate change is real".

"We are seeing significant evidence of a changing climate. We are warming in every part of the country during every season and as each decade goes by, the records are being broken," said Megan Clark, head of Australia's state-backed Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).

The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledged in January its 2007 report had exaggerated the pace of Himalayan glaciers melting, and last month said the report also had overstated how much of the Netherlands is below sea level.

The 2007 report is based on the work of thousands of scientists and is the main policy guide for governments looking to act on climate change. Sceptics have leapt on the errors, saying they undermine the science of climate change but the IPCC, which has announced a review, has defended its work.

The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology report said international research showed it is extremely unlikely that global warming could be explained by natural causes alone.

"There is greater than 90 percent certainty that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the global warming since the mid-20th century," said the report.

"Evidence of human influence has been detected in ocean warming, sea-level rise, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns," said the report.

Australia, a major grains and meat producer, battled the worst drought in 100 years for most of the past decade, damaging its farm output, but in recent years the commodities sector has been recovering due to good rainfall.

The government estimated farm output for 2008/09 at A$42 billion ($38.4 billion) out of total Australian gross domestic product of A$1.2 trillion.

Studies show that rising seas, shifting rainfall patterns and greater extremes of droughts and floods could cost Australia's economy dearly. A government report last November said residential buildings worth up to A$63 billion could be inundated if seas rise by 1.1 metres (3.5 feet) this century.

HEATING UP

Since 1960, the mean temperature in Australia has increased by about 0.7 degrees Celsius, but some areas of the country had warmed by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years, the report said.

Australias warmest decade on record is 2000 to 2009.

While total rainfall in Australia had been relatively stable, the geographic distribution changed significantly over the past 50 years, with rainfall decreasing in southwest and southeast Australia, the major population areas.

Sea levels around the island continent since 1993 have risen 7-10mm per year in the north and west and 1.5 to 3mm in the south and east, said the report.

From 1870 to 2007, the global average sea level rose by close to 200mm (8 inches), sea levels rose at an average of 1.7mm a year in the 20th century and about 3mm per year from 1993-2009, it said.

Sea surface temperatures around Australia have increased by about 0.4 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years.

The scientists said global carbon dioxide concentration in 2009 of 386 parts per million (ppm) was much higher than the natural range of 170 to 300 ppm that existed in the atmosphere for the past 800,000 years and possibly 20 million years.

The scientists said that based on their monitoring of the nation's climate for 100 years, Australian average temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030.

Posted at 3:51PM CDT 03/15/10 by Bryce Anderson
Comments (14)
I heard that the world needs to drop its carbon levels to 360 ppm. in order to bring the climate back to normal. There is a group 360.org which promotes this, whatever that number may be we do need to drop CO2 levels and most of the world agrees. I also heard that the Great Barrier Reef is dying at an extrodinary rate. Thank you for reporting on this very important influence on world agriculture and life as we know it.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 6:33AM CDT 03/16/10
http://www.american.com/archive/2010/march/when-to-doubt-a-scientific-consensus I have posted a good and relevant read relating to the topic. I fully anticipate that Jay McGinnis will fulfil his duties as the article suggests.
Posted by smitty at 7:09AM CDT 03/16/10
To get a better understanding of just how "unscientific" the current news of "climate change" really is, please read SurfaceStations.org and the Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception? by Joseph D'aleo and Anthony Watts, both meteorologists. Bryce should be reading these two articles as well, rather than continuing to push the climate change agenda of others who are increasingly being discredited. The very data on which climate change is based is highly suspect and clearly unreliable. The article "Surface Temperature records:...." clearly uncovers that the unreliable data is further "adjusted" to produce the results desired, and that the proponents are afraid to reveal or discuss the details of their computer models used. Fortuntely there are compenate individuals who are working together and by "reverse engineering" on the computer models used are able to uncover and disclose the currently flawed theory of climate change and psueodo-science. Posted by GLENN TROYER at 01:11PM CDT Mar 15, 2010 worthy of a reprint as it was moved shortly after it was posted...
Posted by smitty at 7:12AM CDT 03/16/10
Another recommended piece of reading is a back and forth interview in the latest Discover magazine issue, featuring comments from climatologists Judith Curry of Georgia Tech and Michael Mann of Penn State. Here is the link to that. I will post this in a separate blog later with some observations, but here it is for now: http://discovermagazine.com/2010/apr/10-it.s-gettin-hot-in-here-big-battle-over-climate-science
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 7:19AM CDT 03/16/10
While checking Smitty's link to "when to doubt scientific consensus" I came across a very interesting Washington Post article "South Dakota Adopts Climate Creationism" 3/12/10. This article states that the "climate deniers" movement represents a modern version of the anti evolutionary movement in the early 20th century. This is being taught in schools in SD to students to not only question science data ( I believe they should always question and have an open mind) but adhere to conservative ideologies like the ones presented by some people here in the DTN blogs. My question is should we just keep students from learning science so some people can continue to live in an imaginary world that some ideolog has manufactured? Does Rush Limbaugh have final say on truth or do we look at thermometers and PPM of carbon as a way to change our destructive ways? Maybe South Dakota will be the place for a modern "Scopes trial"? It is important to have the numbers in front of us as Bryce posted, the facts, too bad some have flawed them but this doesn't change what is happening globally no matter what your politics.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 8:01AM CDT 03/16/10
Here is a link to a report by South Dakota Public Broadcasting on the issue Jay mentioned: http://www.sdpb.org/tv/shows.aspx?MediaID=57972&Parmtype=RADIO&ParmAccessLevel=sdpb-all
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 8:35AM CDT 03/16/10
When checking Jay's link about South Dakota I came across an important article about Acorn. It is widely believed that most members of Acorn believe in Global Warming. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100315/D9EF145O0.html
Posted by smitty at 8:54AM CDT 03/16/10
Maybe it's time to agree to disagree?
Posted by Aaron R. Ritchie at 9:09AM CDT 03/16/10
Jay must be a college professor! Ha Ha
Posted by GARY WILLIAMS at 9:56AM CDT 03/16/10
A personal attack on a blog poster has been removed. Comments on all sides of a given blog item are welcome; however, postings which are judged to be off the subject of a blog item and, instead, focus on attacking an individual blog poster, are unacceptable and will be removed.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 11:09AM CDT 03/16/10
Since Bryce removed my comic blog....I will continue to be a great sideline cheerleader for smitty and Gary W. Keep at it guys, this "closed minded, anti-evolutionist, climate denier, conservative" is behind you 100%.
Posted by G G at 10:16AM CDT 03/17/10
Well G G, at least you are a self-aware individual.
Posted by Aaron R. Ritchie at 12:47PM CDT 03/17/10
Smitty, I just removed your volatile comment about my standards for blog responses. You made a personal attack on a blog responder and that is unacceptable.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 7:27AM CDT 03/18/10
800,000 to 20 million years... Thats quite a range. I'd like to see that data set.
Posted by Paul Beiser at 12:31AM CDT 03/19/10
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