Drought and drought worries are still uppermost in the minds of producers in Argentina. We all know what drought did to cripple the country's crop output last season. This season is expected to be much, much better due to El Nino. But, Senor Nino hasn't shown up entirely just yet.--Bryce
Argentine farmers fear for soy as drought lingers
* Much of Cordoba province still suffering drought
* Region is Argentina's top soy, corn producer
* Forecasters expect rains to pick up in late November
By Helen Popper
BUENOS AIRES, Nov 10 (Reuters) - It hasn't rained properly for months in much of Argentina's top soy growing province and that is raising fears among farmers that drought could spell another bad harvest in the world's No. 3 producer.
Parched soils are stopping growers from seeding the 2009/10 crop in vast swathes of central Cordoba province, which accounts for nearly 30 percent of the nation's soy output, and while there is still time to sow, farmers are concerned.
Drought slashed last season's soy output to 32 million tonnes, falling 30 percent from the previous season and leaving farmers short of cash going into the current crop year.
"When you drive into Cordoba province even the verge along the highway is dry," said Alejandro Benito, who farms some 1,000 hectares (2,471 acres) in Villa Maria, central Cordoba.
"Another bad harvest would be very tricky because a big part of people's financial commitments are probably tied to the soy harvest so it would be very worrying," he added.
Recent rains in much of the central Pampas farming belt, which straddles southern Cordoba, have brightened the outlook for the corn, wheat and soy crops, but water tables remain depleted in central and northern parts of Cordoba and farmers fear showers forecast for later this month may not be enough.
Forest fires flared last week as a result of the hot, tinder-dry conditions and months of scant rainfall have forced municipal officials to impose water rationing in some areas.
The dryness is also lingering in western parts of Buenos Aires province, Argentina's second-biggest soy producer, and neighboring La Pampa, causing significant delays to nationwide sowing progress.
So far, farmers have planted just 12.1 percent of the record estimated soy area of 19 million hectares, trailing last season's planting progress by 17.9 percentage points, according to the latest weekly report by Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
DIFFICULT
While the grains exchange has maintained its original forecast for soy area, some local industry analysts are already warning it could shrink by as much as 3 million hectares if the dry weather lasts toward the end of the peak planting season.
"If things don't improve in Cordoba before Nov. 30, it will be a very difficult situation and everything will be planted late," said German Heinzenknecht, a forecaster from the Applied Climatology Consultancy in Tandil, Buenos Aires province.
Soybeans planted later in the season tend to have lower yields, with crops at greater risk of early frosts, meaning delays could compound the impact of a smaller overall area.
Some international grains analysts are already predicting output losses, although the U.S. Department of Agriculture, or USDA, raised its forecast for soy production on Tuesday to 53 million tonnes.
Cesar Rebella, a weather specialist at Argentina's National Institute of Agricultural Technology, or INTA, said it was still too early to forecast a second poor harvest in the South American nation -- the top supplier of soyoil and soymeal.
"There's time to plant soy until the first days of January so there's still quite a long time to wait for rain," he said. "What's most in doubt is 4 or 5 million hectares that have drought problems. As far as soy is concerned, we should have 14 or 15 million hectares in good shape," he added.
In the eastern Cordoba district of Marcos Juarez, soils are still moist enough to plant, said farmer Ricardo Arregui.
"Up until now we're sowing normally (but) we are worried," he said. "We've got a bit less moisture than normal, but to the north and northwest of Marcos Juarez, the situation's very different and sowing is delayed."