Ag Policy Blog
Chris Clayton DTN Ag Policy Editor

Tuesday 11/17/09

Lincoln Gearing up For 2010 Campaign

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln will highlight her role in agriculture during a committee hearing in her home state next week. The hearing will include three panels on production agriculture, rural infrastructure and community development. The hearing also comes as Lincoln, a Democrat, begins to draw a lot of attention for issues such as health-care and climate legislation while gearing up for a re-election campaign in 2010.

Lincoln's campaign also announced on Tuesday her "ag team" and emphasized how together they will "tackle rural development, child nutrition, farm programs and other initiatives to help protect our quality of life in rural communities."

The campaign news release highlighted that Lincoln is the first Arkansan and first woman to chair the Senate Agriculture Committee.

http://blancheforsenate.com/…

Political pundits have suggested Lincoln could be vulnerable next year because of the electorate is concerned about the economy and incumbents from the president's party often take a hit in a mid-term election. Arkansas also is a hard state to gauge because President Barack Obama lost by 20 percentage points last year, yet every statewide officeholder and three of four congressional districts are held by Democrats. In general, despite conservative leanings, Arkansas is traditionally a Democratic state.

In 2010, the U.S. Senate race is the only major race in the Arkansas. But it's not on the radar screens of many people. According to the Arkansas Poll, only 6 percent of respondents are following the race "very closely" and another 17 percent are following it "fairly closely."

Of all respondents, Lincoln would likely carry a 6 percentage point lead over a Republican Party candidate, 40-34 percent. Of those following the race "very closely," the margin grows to 8 percent. Of registered voters, the margin is 41 percent to 36 percent. At least 10 percent of register voters didn't know or declined to answer.

Lincoln's approval ratings in Arkansas have dropped in 2009 back closer to levels she held in 1999. According to the poll, 43 percent of respondents approved of the way Lincoln is handling her job as senator, compared to 54 percent in 2008 and 55 percent in 2003 and 2005 polls.

Lincoln's approval rating was not polled in 2002 when she carried her re-election with 56 percent of the vote.

More people also have swung from the "don't know" category to disapproval of Lincoln's job approval. Her disapproval rating was as low as 10 percent in 2003 before creeping up to 17 percent in 2005; 24 percent in 2007; to a disapproval rating of 34 percent in 2009.

Reflecting some of the battles that face Lincoln, the Washington Post also had an article Tuesday about the senator as one of the Democrats facing heavy pressure from both sides of the health-care debate as well.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

Still Lincoln is more than set for a re-election battle. The senator's campaign had $4.1 million on-hand at the end of September.

The Republican field to challenge Lincoln has as many as seven candidates but only one has any significant cash on hand. That's state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who had more than $500,000 on hand at the end of September, roughly 12 times more than the next contender. A GOP straw poll will be held in early December but the party is requiring that any candidate must have at least $10,000 in campaign cash to participate. That could cull the herd a great deal.

http://www.senatorgilbertbaker.com/…

Lincoln has been an avowed critic of the climate legislation and the lack of support from farm-state Democrats has been one of the reasons the bill has stalled out in 2009.

People in the poll were also asked "Do you think global warming is an urgent problem requiring immediate attention or a longer-term problem that requires more study before government action is taken?

In 2006-2008, 44 percent of people declared it an "urgent problem." That dropped to 34 percent in the 2009 poll.

Those declaring it a longer-term problem have gone from 46 percent in 2006; 44 percent in 2007; 36 percent in 2008 and 46 percent in 2009.

In the past two years, 10 percent of people have volunteered to state it is not a problem.

The Arkansas Poll can be found at http://www.uark.edu/…

I can be found on Twitter at chrisclaytonDTN.

Posted at 2:43PM CST 11/17/09 by Chris Clayton
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