Market Matters Blog
Informa Pegs Bean Production Above 4 Billion Bushels
OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics sees U.S. soybean production climbing over 4 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bushels per acre.
"This estimate adds to the bearish case for soybeans and soybean prices are trading lower in response to Informa's numbers," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said.
Informa's production forecast is 104 million bushels higher than USDA's September estimate and its yield estimate is 1.9 bpa higher. No state average yield is expected to decline from September's estimates, Informa said.
Soybean planted acres will likely be reduced by 1.2 million acres in USDA's October report, but yield increases will "more than offset a potential production loss associated with the acreage reduction."
USDA will incorporate the Farm Services Agency's certified acreage data in its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates that will be released on Friday, October 10, at 11 a.m. CDT.
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Informa expects USDA to forecast corn production at 14.395 billion bushels. While that's unchanged from USDA's forecast in September, Informa sees USDA increasing the national average yield to 176.4 bpa, up 4.7 bpa from September, while lowering harvested acreage by 2.3 million acres to 81.6 ma.
"If true, the total production is the same as USDA's September estimate and probably less than the many in the market currently expect," Hultman said.
Illinois's average yield will cross the 200 bpa mark, Informa said, coming in at 206 bpa. That's 12 bpa higher than USDA's September estimate. Iowa corn yield is forecast at 191 bpa, up 6 bpa from USDA's last estimate.
Informa projects grain sorghum production at 412 mb, 19 mb lower than USDA's forecast in September, with an average yield of 68.2 bpa, one bushel larger than last month's estimate. Informa's analysis of FSA acreage shows an expected 371,000 acre decline in planted acres.
Informa also released its updated estimates on world numbers, but Hultman said there were no significant changes for corn or soybean supplies.
"For wheat, Informa expects roughly 4 million metric tons more world production than USDA's estimate for the Former Soviet Union (+1mmt), Europe (+2 mmt) and Argentina (+1mmt)," Hultman said. "On the other hand, they expect roughly 1.5 mmt less production for Australia than USDA estimates.
"Informa's estimates are bearish overall for wheat, and prices are showing little impact from Friday's report."
Katie Micik can be reached at Katie.micik@dtn.com
Follow Katie Micik on Twitter @KatieMDTN
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