Market Matters Blog
Pat Hill DTN Markets Editor

Friday 07/30/10
Spring Wheat Tour Finds 46 bpa

Scouts on the Spring Wheat and Durum Tour turned in their yardsticks and scales Thursday after estimating yields very close to last year, at 46 bushels per acre.

What that may mean for the August crop production report numbers, though, is an open question, based on the wide differences between the two estimates in the last three years. As the chart below shows, the tour estimate was a little below USDA Aug 1 forecast in 2006 and 2007, but above it a little in 2008 and way above it in 2009.

And there've also been some big differences between both the tour estimate, USDA's August forecast, and USDA's final estimates:

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tour - Aug 1 31.7 37.3 37.7 46.2 46.0
NASS Aug 1 32.7 39.3 36.8 38.3 ?
NASS Final 32.2 36.2 39.9 44.5 ?
Tour % of NASS Aug 1 97% 95% 102% 121% ?
NASS Aug % of Final 102% 109% 92% 86% ?
Tour % of Final 98% 103% 94% 104% ?

Scouts on the tour sounded optimistic that yields will hold up, given that this year's crop is much farther along in maturity than last year, so if the weather cooperates, it may be in better position to withstand any late disease or insect issues, reported DTN's Susanne Stahl, who was on the tour.

She also reported that some scouts had hopes for a little higher protein levels, since farmers applied extra fertilizer and there was more heat stress.
Posted at 9:28AM CDT 07/30/10 by Pat Hill
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