The commodity party isn't over, but you should keep your eye on the punchbowl, advises Barclays Capital in a quarterly research publication, according to a news release on the investment bank's website.

As the global economic recovery broadens further, "investors will continue to be rewarded for taking risk over the next few months," the news release stated.

Not shy about pointing to past successes, the release said BarCap a year ago had recommended investments in equity and credit markets, a "call [that] has played out," according to the release. "While valuations are no longer compelling, equities and credit should continue to benefit from this environment. With the exception of China, policy tightening is not yet appropriate for most economies, and investors should still be positioned aggressively."

What happens in China will be a key to commodity demand. Monetary tightening in the U.S. or China poses a bigger threat to global economic growth than deficits or a "double dip" in economic recovery, the release said.

In an article about the research report, Reuters said the report indicated that global supply trends are likely to play a bigger role in commodity price direction this year, and on those grounds, it said it expects a boost in metals, especially copper, but is less optimistic for agriculture, citing the record or near-record world crops expected in wheat, corn and soybeans.

Barclays estimated that investors put nearly $4 billion into commodities last month, almost 20 times the amount of inflows in January, Bloomberg reported separately. The increase reflected a resumption of investments by institutional investors using commodity indexes to gain broad-based exposure, with agriculture accounting for $1.18 billion of that.

See Barclays' release at http://bit.ly/…