Market Matters Blog
Pat Hill DTN Markets Editor

Tuesday 03/02/10
Report Time Approaching

USDA's March crop production report, usually a yawner, will hold a little more interest this time around.

That's because this report, due next Wednesday, March 10, will incorporate results of a re-survey of those states where corn and soybean harvest had not been sufficiently completed at the time of the December survey.

The re-survey was conducted the first two weeks of February, and statisticians at USDA's National Ag Statistics Service are looking at that data now, according to Joe Prusacki, head of the NASS statistics division.

"If the data warrant any changes, we will publish those changes in the March crop production report," Prusacki told me.

The corn states subject to a recount were Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, North and South Dakota and Wisconsin.

The soybean states that were reconsidered are Georgia, North and South Carolina and Virginia.

And those changes, if there are any, will be incorporated in the monthly supply and demand tables from the World Ag Outlook Board.

Ahead of the March 10 report, analysts have begun releasing their guesses.

The early interest is focused on changes in U.S. ending stocks estimates and any adjustments in South American crop production.

Private analytical firm Allendale said in a news release Tuesday afternoon it expects USDA to cut its estimates of U.S. ending stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat.

Allendale is projecting 2009/10 ending corn stocks at 1.671 billion bushels, down from 1.719 b bu in the February report. The cuts result from a 68 million-bushel reduction in the 2009 crop size, an increase in ethanol use and a decrease in exports.

Soybean ending stocks are seen dropping 20 m bu to 190 m bu, with domestic crush running better than expected.

Allendale said it expects USDA to cut wheat ending stocks to 966 m bu, from 981 m bu in February, on an increase in exports.

For world S&Ds, Allendale is projecting only modest adjustments. The firm said Argentine soybean production could be increased a million metric tons, to 53 MMT, while Brazil production is called unchanged at 66 MMT.

Informa Economics told clients it will update its U.S. and world crop reports Thursday morning.
Posted at 2:09PM CST 03/02/10 by Pat Hill
Comments (2)
As of end February, ND still had nearly 500,000 acres of corn in the field and S.D. @ 150,000. Combined, those states alone are the equivalent of @ 80 million bushels of corn. The total planted acreage of the 6 re-survey states is @ 33 million acres or @ 5 billion corn in round numbers. I note a lot of analysts are expecting very little change in the production side of the equation next week. From my perspective, given all the talk about low test weight etc, it would take much of a "tweak" to have a measureable impact on USDA's. Somehow, I also wonder if the frustration factor we've seen from Producers since the jan 12 "surprise" won't tend to skew those 2nd chance re-survey estimates to the downside....
Posted by ken morrison at 9:58AM CST 03/03/10
Just to clarify a point: NASS is waiting until some later time to do the re-survey in the Dakotas -- there's still snow on the ground, after all. So whatever updates we get in 2009 production will only reflect changes from Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Posted by Pat Hill at 10:30AM CST 03/04/10
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