How many acres will be sown to soybeans in South America? Estimates for Brazil seem fairly focused, but there's a big range of guesses for Argentina.

That was a big topic at a presentation in Sao Paulo Thursday hosted by CME Group. Among the presenters was DTN South America Correspondent Kieran Gartlan. He'll be providing details from the conference next week in his blog (South America Calling), but I convinced him to share the highlights today.

Gartlan told me some local analysts and the Buenos Aires exchange are talking about production of 46 to 48 million metric tons, stating dryness in some areas and excess rain in others.

"I don't agree and think Argentina will produce a record crop of 53 to 55 mmt (barring any major weather problems going forward)," Gartlan said.

Gartlan said Argentine government reports show regular to good soil moisture conditions in many locations. "After two poor crops in a row I think that there is a lot of residual fertility in the soil. Also with the possibility that export taxes could be reduced in coming months, I think farmers will invest more in the current crop to try to recover some of the losses from the previous two years," Gartlan said.

Of course, weather is always the wild card, and El Nino could play a big part in the final crop size, he added.

Gartlan's estimate is in line with USDA's projections of 53 mmt for the current year. That compares to just 32 mmt in 2007/08 and 46.2 mmt the previous year.