It's no surprise that restraints in farm income are affecting rural economies, but a monthly survey from Creighton University puts some numbers on it.
The Rural Mainstreet Index rose to 38.4 in November, inching its way slowly back toward a growth neutral 50.0.
The index based on surveys of community bank presidents and CEOs in about 200 rural communities in 11 states, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.
"The RMI has remained below growth neutral for 21 consecutive months. The decline in farm income related to pullbacks in agricultural commodities from last year continues to weigh on the rural, agriculturally dependent economy," said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, in a news release from Creighton.
This month, bankers were asked to compare estimated 2009 farm income from crops and livestock to that in 2008. On average, bank CEOs expect crop income to be flat from last year and project livestock income to be down by 5 percent from last year, the news release stated. "This is a much better outlook than the one provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that projects 2009 farm income will be down by almost one-third," reported Goss.
However, many bankers such as Tom Boyer president of Farmers State Bank in Fairmont, Neb., indicate that it is too early to accurately gauge farm income. Scott Tewksbury, CEO of Heartland State Bank in Edgeley, N.D., said, "Crop income levels are a little hard to judge because of the delayed harvest. November weather has been good, and the harvest of row crops is progressing quickly."
The downturn in farm income has negatively affected both farmland prices and sales of farm equipment. The November farmland-price index rose to a weak 45.6 from 43.0 in October. This was the 13th straight month that the index moved below growth neutral. The farm equipment-sales index advanced to 39.9 from 36.7 in October. "Farmers are a lot more cautious in their purchases of farm equipment than they were in early 2008," said Goss.
