OMAHA (DTN) -- El Nino -- the large-scale weather feature in the equatorial Pacific -- is usually a widespread wintertime precipitation-producer in the Southern Plains, and beneficial for winter wheat areas.

However, the persistent Northern Hemisphere storm track that has been in place for two years shows little sign of changing. That means El Nino's presence could be muted over Texas wheat areas in the 2009-10 winter.

The more-dicey 2009-10 El Nino pattern may also keep moisture supplies short in Argentina's wheat areas, already reduced in size by devastating drought last year.

The result of these two significant effects is ...