Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern for the Central U.S., poor weather in Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in Brazil and heavy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

Frost occurred in the Midwest on Thursday morning across the eastern half of the region, but that may be the end of the frost risk this spring. Warmth will return Friday but so will an active pattern that will bring multiple storm systems through going into early May. Gaps between storms will be short, leading to delays in planting either due to soaked fields or just wet conditions.

MULTIPLE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several storm systems are going to move through the Central and Southern Plains going into early May which will keep the region busy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain, and strong winds are all going to be on the table in the active pattern. That does include some better chances at getting moisture into drier areas around Kansas that have seen drought increasing in recent weeks but could slow down planting progress in places that have better soil moisture at the moment like Nebraska. The gaps between storms will be short for at least 10 days. Though not all areas will see rain falling from each storm, this will likely lead to some sort of delay in planting.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

There is potential for widespread and heavier showers in the Northern Plains starting today and continuing through the weekend as two systems move close by. This favors the Dakotas more than Montana with heavier amounts, but all areas have the potential for some needed rain. If rain is heavy, it could lead to some wetter fields and slow planting progress. More disturbances will move through next week with areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms as well.

DELTA MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

Recent heavy rain has kept soil wet in the Delta and likely caused some producers to delay planting, though that had been off to a quick start in most areas anyway. It could get busy again as the storm track runs from the Southern Plains through the Midwest going through next week, bringing risks of thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rain through the region going into May. The region will be on the edge of the storm track and may luck out with some more limited precipitation in areas that have become too wet.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACTIVE IN THE DROUGHT

Mixed conditions over the winter and early spring have not been able to affect drought much in the Canadian Prairies, which is expansive. An active pattern this week and next will bring rounds of showers through the region, but nothing overly heavy or widespread is forecast at the moment, which causes some delays in planting without providing much soil moisture. Eastern areas have done better recently, though, and soil moisture there may be more favorable than for most of Alberta.

HOT AND DRY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Much of the safrinha corn growing areas in central Brazil will be dry for the foreseeable future. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in corn and soybean harvest, is seeing showers, but those will pull back south on Friday. The front makes a return next week, which may disrupt harvest, but may also get into the far southern safrinha corn areas as well.

TOO WET IN ARGENTINA

A front will continue to waffle around the northern end of Argentina through the weekend before getting pushed northward next week. Areas of heavier rain will affect harvest and make it difficult going into May, as well as lead to quality issues for a good-looking crop. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

Cool and wet conditions have infiltrated much of Europe over the last week. Frosts have been common across northern growing areas where wheat is less developed but have likely slowed down early planting of summer crops. Areas in the northwest like France and the UK continue to be too wet while Spain and areas in the south are welcoming the rain. The storm track will favor western areas with rainfall starting this weekend as it dries out a bit farther east. That will also increase temperatures across most of the continent. But the rain will likely migrate eastward later next week and could be followed by another burst of colder air.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR HOT AND DRY BLACK SEA WHEAT

The storm track has favored systems moving through western and central Ukraine at the expense of eastern Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia recently. Only streaks of light rain have moved through at times. That pattern continues through the weekend before getting drier everywhere next week. Hotter and drier conditions in the east have been unfavorable for wheat that is developing quickly after a warm and wet winter. Crop conditions for winter grains are no doubt falling in the region while planting progress is likely quicker than normal. The region could see more widespread rain next weekend, but that is a way off.

EARLY DRYNESS NOT A HUGE CONCERN FOR AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions are favored in most areas of Australia for the next week, though western areas should see some rain early next week and some showers may develop along the east coast next week as well. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays in planting as the country awaits better soil moisture conditions for winter crop establishment. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.