USDA Report Summary

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA lowered global corn ending stocks by 4.4 million metric tons to 185.28 mmt, well below the range of pre-report estimates.

USDA said South Africa consumed more corn over the last decade than it previously assumed, causing a 2.2 mmt decline in 2013-14 beginning stocks. Global corn production for 2014-15 was lowered by 1.6 mmt, largely on declining production in South Africa as well.

USDA also pegged domestic ending stocks at the low end of pre-report estimates at 1.78 billion bushels after lowering corn use for ethanol and raising feed and export estimates.

USDA made no changes to the domestic soybean table and a 1 mb adjustment to domestic wheat ending stocks. USDA left Brazil and Argentina soybean production estimates unchanged.

Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA lowered domestic ending stocks by 50 million bushels to 1.78 bb. USDA lowered corn use for ethanol by 50 mb, increased feed and residual use by 50 mb and increased exports by 50 mb. USDA said the lower ethanol figure reflected the latest Grain Crushing and Co-Products Production report that implied a higher conversion rate.

The corn ending stocks-to-use ratio declined slightly to 13%. The season average farm price range was projected at $3.50 to $3.90 per bushels.

Globally, USDA made several changes to the supply and demand table that lowered ending stocks below the range of pre-report expectations. USDA made lots of changes to arrive at its 185.28 mmt ending stocks figure, including the large revision to 2013-14 beginning stocks. After adjusting demand categories through 2013-14, ending stocks (also 2014-15 beginning stocks) declined by 1.66 mmt. South Africa's production decline was partially offset by a 0.5 mmt increase in Argentina's corn production. Brazilian corn production was left unchanged at 75 mmt.

The global stocks-to-use ratio also declined slightly to 19%.

SOYBEANS

USDA made no changes to the domestic soybean supply and demand table, leaving ending stocks at 385 mb. The season average farm price was unchanged from last month at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel. The stocks-to-use ratio was 10.4%.

Globally, USDA also made very minor adjustments. Ending stocks increased slightly to 89.53 mmt, up 0.27 mmt. Brazil and Argentina corn production were left unchanged at 94.5 mmt and 56 mmt, respectively. The global stocks-to-use ratio inched up to 31%.

WHEAT

USDA made a 1 mb adjustment to wheat use for seed, boosting seed use to 75 mb. Ending stocks declined correspondingly to 691 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio declined to 33.1%. USDA narrowed the average farm price range by 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.90 to $6.10 per bushel.

World ending stocks declined 0.14 mmt to 197.71 mmt, within the range of pre-report expectations. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was unchanged at 27.7%.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels) 2014-2015
	Mar.	Average	High	Low	Feb.	2013-14
Corn	1.777	1.822	1.860	1.777	1.827	1.232
Soybeans	0.385	0.379	0.395	0.350	0.385	0.092
Wheat	0.691	0.696	0.710	0.674	0.692	0.590
Sorghum	0.027	0.025	0.028	0.022	0.027	0.034
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2014-2015
	Mar.	Average	High	Low	Feb.	2013-14
Corn	185.28	189.60	192.00	187.00	189.60	173.80
Soybeans	89.53	89.40	91.00	88.50	89.30	66.25
Wheat	197.71	197.80	199.00	195.40	197.90	187.46
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)
	Mar.	Avg	High	Low	Feb.	2013-14
Wheat
European Union	155.7				155.7	143.5
FSU-12	112.7				112.4	103.9
Corn
Brazil	75.0	74.6	76.0	73.0	75.0	80.0
Argentina	23.5	22.3	25.0	21.5	23.0	26.0
Soybeans
Brazil	94.5	93.9	95.0	91.0	94.5	86.7
Argentina	56.0	56.6	57.5	55.0	56.0	54.0

(AG)

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