USDA Reports Summary
USDA Ups Corn Ending Stocks by 25 MB
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA bumped up its forecast for corn use for ethanol production by 25 million bushels while cutting exports by 50 mb, resulting in a 25 mb increase to 2015-16 ending stocks.
The new ending stocks figure, at 1.785 billion bushels, was within the range of pre-report expectations.
USDA made no changes to the U.S. soybean and wheat balance sheets in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that it released at 11 a.m. CST. USDA did not release any updated crop production forecasts for corn, soybeans or wheat. Those will be included in January's annual crop production report.
Globally, USDA increased its forecast for wheat ending stocks to 229.9 million metric tons, which was 0.9 mmt above the range of pre-report estimates.
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CORN
USDA said its adjustment to the ethanol figure was based on stronger-than-expected ethanol production during November, reflecting in the weekly data from the Energy Information Administration. Its change to exports reflects the slow pace of sales and shipments as well as higher projected exports from Brazil and Canada.
USDA's adjustment to U.S. ending stocks for 2015-16 lifted the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 13.1% from 12.9% last month. The range of national average farm prices was left unchanged at $3.35 per bushel to $3.95.
Globally, USDA made a very minor adjustment to ending stocks by rolling it back to 211.85 mmt. It didn't change its forecast for Brazil or Argentina production, leaving them at 81.5 mmt and 25.6 mmt respectively.
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The global stocks-to-use ratio was unchanged at 21.8%.
SOYBEANS
USDA made no changes to the U.S. supply and demand picture, leaving ending stocks at 465 mb. Farm gate average prices were left unchanged, ranging from $8.15 per bushel to $9.65. The ending stocks-to-use ratio remained at 12.4%.
There was also a very minor reduction in global 2015-16 soybean ending stocks from last month, down 0.3 mmt to 82.6 mmt. USDA left new-crop production unchanged for Brazil and Argentina, at 100 mmt and 57 mmt respectively, but made one old-crop change, lifting Argentina's 2014-15 production by 0.6 mmt to 61.4 mmt.
Global stocks-to-use dropped slightly to 26.4%.
WHEAT
USDA left the wheat balance sheet unchanged, with ending stocks at 911 mb and ending stocks-to-use at 45.1%. The range of national average farm gate prices remained at $4.80 to $5.20 per bushel.
Globally, wheat ending stocks came in at 229.9 mmt, above the range of pre-report expectation. USDA stated that it mostly reflects higher production.
USDA increased Canada's forecasted production to 27.6 mmt, up 1.6 mmt from last month. It also lifted European Union production by 0.4 mmt to 157.7 mmt. Global stocks-to-use rose to 32.1%.
GRAIN SORGHUM
USDA increased its forecast for grain sorghum ending stocks by 1 mb, reflecting a 1 mb increase in imports. The ending stocks increase matched pre-report expectations.
ANALYSIS
On the domestic side, USDA increased its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015-16 from 1.760 billion bushels to 1.785 bb, which was more than expected -- the result of a reduction in the export estimate, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. "Wednesday's report should be viewed as bearish for corn," he said.
USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending for 2015-16 was unchanged at 465 million bushels, which was roughly as expected. "Wednesday's report should be viewed as neutral for soybeans," Hultman said.
USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was unchanged at 911 million bushels, which was slightly less than expected. "Wednesday's U.S. report should be viewed as neutral for wheat," Hultman said.
On the global side, USDA's estimate of global ending corn stocks for 2015-16 was reduced slightly from 211.91 mmt to 211.85 mmt and was a little less than expected.
USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2015-16 was reduced from 82.86 to 82.58 mmt and was also a little less than expected.
USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 227.30 to 229.86 mmt, which was more than expected.
"Wednesday's world estimates from USDA are neutral for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat," Hultman said.
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2015-2016 | ||||||
| Dec | Avg | High | Low | Nov | 2014-15 | |
| Corn | 1,785 | 1,769 | 1,855 | 1,690 | 1,760 | 1,731 |
| Soybeans | 465 | 466 | 502 | 445 | 465 | 191 |
| Grain Sorghum | 59 | 59 | 62 | 56 | 58 | 18 |
| Wheat | 911 | 917 | 947 | 900 | 911 | 753 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) | ||||||
| Dec | Avg | High | Low | Nov | 2014-15 | |
| Corn | 211.9 | 212.2 | 215.2 | 209.0 | 211.9 | 208.2 |
| Soybeans | 82.6 | 82.9 | 84.0 | 82.0 | 82.9 | 77.6 |
| Wheat | 229.9 | 226.8 | 229.0 | 224.5 | 227.3 | 211.7 |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) | ||||||
| 2015-16 | 2014-15 | |||||
| Dec | Nov | Dec | Nov | |||
| Australia wheat | 26.0 | 26.0 | 23.7 | 23.7 | ||
| European Union wheat | 157.7 | 157.3 | 156.5 | 156.5 | ||
| Argentina corn | 25.6 | 25.6 | 26.5 | 26.5 | ||
| Brazil corn | 81.5 | 81.5 | 85.0 | 85.0 | ||
| Argentina soybeans | 57.0 | 57.0 | 61.4 | 60.8 | ||
| Brazil soybeans | 100.0 | 100.0 | 96.2 | 96.2 | ||
(AG/CZ)
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