US Ethanol Output Seen Over 950,000 BPD

OAKHURST, N.J. (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration said ethanol production, which averaged 934,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2014, is forecast to average more than 950,000 bpd in both 2015 and 2016.

Ethanol consumption, which averaged 877,000 bpd in 2014, is forecast to average slightly more than 900,000 bpd in both 2015 and 2016, resulting in an average 9.9% ethanol share of the total gasoline pool. EIA does not expect significant increases in E15 or E85 consumption over the forecast period.

"On May 29, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard targets for 2014 through 2016. Although these targets could be modified before the final rule is issued, they are used in developing the current STEO," EIA said.

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The proposed RFS targets could encourage imports of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, which were 3,000 bpd in 2014.

EIA reiterated that it expects the largest effect of the proposed RFS targets to be on biodiesel consumption, which contributes to meeting the biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel and total renewable fuel RFS targets.

Biodiesel production averaged an estimated 81,000 bpd in 2014 and is forecast to average 91,000 bpd in 2015, slightly higher than last month's estimate, and 98,000 bpd in 2016, steady with the August STEO.

Net imports of biomass-based diesel are also expected to increase from 15,000 bpd in 2014 to 23,000 bpd this year and 35,000 bpd in 2016.

"EIA expects that a combination of higher biomass-based diesel consumption, higher consumption of domestic and import ethanol, and banked Renewable Identification Numbers will help meet the newly proposed RFS targets through 2016."

The agency estimates that carbon dioxide emissions grew 1.0% in 2014 and are projected to decrease by 0.4% this year and then rise by 0.6% in 2016. These forecasts are sensitive to both weather and economic assumptions. Monthly carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector were at a 27-year low in April, which is typically the month with the lowest generation level in each year.

(BM/AG)

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