Washington Insider-- Thursday

By DTN's Washington Insider

Here’s a quick monitor of Washington farm and trade policy issues from DTN’s well-placed observer.

Argentina to Resume Beef Sales to US

Argentina said it will resume beef sales to the US before Dec. 31, ending a 14-year ban, following a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling in its favor.

The WTO Dispute Settlement Body in Geneva on Aug. 31 endorsed a July 24 panel ruling siding with Buenos Aires in its dispute with the US over beef shipment restrictions following an outbreak of bovine foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the South American country in 2001. In June, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced it would lift its 14-year ban on beef imports from northern Argentina beginning Sept. 28.

The WTO ruling means the WTO ruling “is now final and cannot be appealed,” the Argentina Foreign Ministry said in a statement released Sept. 1 in Buenos Aires. Foreign Minister Hector Timerman said the move will allow Argentina to resume fresh, chilled or frozen beef sales to the US “before year’s end.”

Argentina’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Casamiquela, at a joint news conference with Timerman, said Argentina recovered its international status as a country free from foot-and-mouth disease in 2007. “In spite of this, the US continued to refrain from buying Argentine beef, which has led to this dispute at the WTO,” he said.

Until the US ban, the US was importing between 18,000 and 20,000 metric tons of Argentine beef a year, Casamiquela said.

US officials said the US market will open up to Argentine beef, but Washington will make sure those shipments are made “under conditions that meet the high level of protection of the United States, in particular to ensure that foot-and-mouth disease will not be introduced” from Argentina. “The adoption of the panel report provides a renewed opportunity for Argentina and the United States to work together,” a US delegation in Geneva said.

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ICAC: Lower 2015/16 World Cotton Crop Won’t Trim Carryover Much

Even with world cotton production forecast to be down 10% at 23.7 million tonnes in 2015/16, that is forecast to reduce global carryover to 20.4 million tonnes, or just over 6%, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

World cotton area is projected down 7% in 2015/16 to just under 31 million hectares due to significantly lower prices in 2014/15, ICAC said. The decline in production is also expected to come as forecast yields are seen down 3% at 764 kg per hectare. “Limited growth in demand will not make a large impact on world ending stocks, which are expected to be reduced by 6%, or just over 1 million tons, to 20.4 million tons,” ICAC said. That compares to 21.75 million tonnes for 2014/15 and 20.3 million tonnes for 2013/14.

Of course one of the biggest factors: China. “China’s imports are forecast to decrease by 12% to 1.6 million tons, marking the fifth season of decline after peaking at 5.3 million tons in 2011/12,” ICAC detailed. “Imports outside of China would offset China’s decline, rising by 3% to 6 million tons with gains in the next three largest importers.”

China’s role in the world cotton market remains significant despite the country's continued decline in imports as China struggles with shifting cotton policies from buying up domestically produced cotton to given producers direct subsidies. And, their mountainous supplies of state-owned cotton they have procured from domestic production continues as a wet blanket over the market. Their efforts to move these stocks onto the market have also had a limited impact as a small percentage of those supplies were sold via their most recent multi-week auction effort.

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Washington Insider: Ignoring Science

Maybe it’s the blizzard of hype surrounding the beginning of the 2016 election season but something seems to have triggered an unusual amount of recent media criticism of lawmakers and supporters who have their minds made up about something and can’t be changed by science, scientists or published facts. This is especially true, observers say, of those with a political theme—for example the public’s “right to know.”

Joseph Perrone, a credentialed scientist, recently wrote on The Hill about Berkeley, California, city councilors who passed an ordinance requiring cell phones to carry a warning label about possible exposure to radiation levels. Perrone thinks this is a prime example of warnings without benefit of science in spite of scientific conclusions that such dangers are minimal by the National Cancer Institute, the America Cancer Society, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the US Food and Drug Administration, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Federal Communications Commission.

Berkeley councilors, however, ignored these groups and responded to concerns raised by the California Brain Tumor Association—a small non-profit started by a woman who believes her husband developed brain cancer from frequent use of his cell phone.

The Hill also highlights the “faux alarm” over genetically modified organisms. A long list of venerable health organizations and national academies of science confirm that GMOs pose no risk to human health or the environment, Perrone says. Still, from Vermont to Hawaii, lawmakers have ignored science and instead sided with activist groups who continue to insist the risks to our health are “unknown” and therefore “unreasonable,” he says.

He suggests that if more than 8,000 studies showing GMOs pose neither risks to human health nor the environment aren’t enough to mark GMOs as well-studied, it’s unlikely more research will be sufficient to calm their unfounded fears. Instead, in the absence of absolute, conclusive proof showing GMO safety, activists and many lawmakers continue to insist consumers have a “right to know” which foods contain GMOs. In addition, Perrone notes other examples of fact free warnings.

His main point is to suggest that there is a down side to this “over-warning” with implications for public health, he says. When everything from cell phones to coffee comes with a cancer warning, it’s nearly impossible for the average consumer to gauge actual risk. Desensitizing consumers to health warnings may cause them to ignore warning on products that actually carry a serious health risk—like cigarettes, he argues.

Perrone probably understates the problem of consumer mistrust of science since it actually appears that the real target of unsubstantiated attacks on food GMO food products often is technology—and, the firms that help provide it. For example, an editorial content writer for the New York Times noted earlier his support for mandated GMO labels for food products. He admitted that he knew there were no credible health threats from GMOs but was interested in working against genetics companies that he dislikes.

If that approach seems questionable to you, it did to voters in several states, as well. However, there are still huge numbers of consumers who seem willing to sign on to unspecified or undocumented threats and concerns that lead Perrone to raise a concern of his own. Scaring consumers about risks that don’t exist may help raise money and win votes, but does little or nothing to improve public knowledge, safety or health, he thinks. While that view is not widespread, at least not yet, it does appear that more questions are being raised these days and that could become a useful trend, Washington Insider believes.

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(GH/CZ)

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