Harrington's Sort and Cull

So, what is worse for the future of the U.S. beef industry, broken-mouth cows or broken-mouth ranchers? I'll give you second or two to chew the matter over.

Time's up.

Broken-mouth ranchers, hands down. While toothless cows are good for little more than the shortest route to the hamburger factory, at least they can be replaced in relative short order. Recruiting a new productive crop of ranchers, on the other hand, takes considerably more planning and luck.

With early summer grass redefining the color green and visions of $3 calves still alive and well, talk of herd expansion hasn't been so glib in decades. Strictly in terms of economics, the breeding and calving of more cows over the next several years seems like an absolute no-brainer.

Earlier this spring, I wrote a column predicting that the Jan. 1, 2016, cow herd would at least be 2 million head greater than the previous year. That's how compelling the expansion arguments looked then, and I guess nothing has shifted to change my mind.

And yet...

Someone recently reminded me of a troubling bit of demographics, a profile of management and labor realities that could work to trump or at least soften the bullish potential of cow-calf productivity.

The 2012 Census of Agriculture reports that the average age of principal operators on U.S. farms is 58.3 years of age, with only 8.1% of all operators below the age of 35. At the other end of the age distribution, 29% of all farm operators are 65 years or older.

Although census data does not breakdown into specific types of operations, I think it's safe to assume that the average age of ranchers is even older, possibly by as much as five years. Furthermore, it surely can be reasonably argued that the full-year demands of ranching are more taxing on the older operators than the seasonal and highly mechanized chores that attend row crop farming.

Finally, the longer production cycle in the cattle business simply makes operator age a greater wildcard than it is in, say, raising corn. The old boy or girl that would play the former game must consider the wisdom of throwing the dice over as much as a decade, while the borderline retiree interested in staying in the latter need only anticipate on a year-to-year basis.

Here's the ponderous question in a nutshell: To what extent (if any) will the economic enthusiasm for cattle herd expansion be checked by the average rancher who doesn't have the chops he once had?

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(AG)

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