Large Global Soy Supplies? Malarkey!

Current South American Soybean Supplies Tighter Than Some Assume

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
Connect with Todd:
@ToddHultman1
This chart compares USDA's estimates of ending stocks-to-use ratios for the U.S. (blue bars) and the world (red bars). USDA's estimates have given many a false impression that world soybean supplies are more plentiful outside the U.S., but the numbers are distorted due to USDA's use of mid-year stocks estimates for South America. Current soybean supplies in South America are much tighter than is commonly understood.
This chart compares USDA's estimates of ending stocks-to-use ratios for the U.S. (blue bars) and the world (red bars). USDA's estimates have given many a false impression that world soybean supplies are more plentiful outside the U.S., but the numbers are distorted due to USDA's use of mid-year stocks estimates for South America. Current soybean supplies in South America are much tighter than is commonly understood.
The commonly held belief that South America is sitting on large inventories of stored soybeans is wrong. Even with a record South American crop on the way, there is plenty of risk ahead in the 2014 soybean market on both sides.

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Todd Hultman

Todd Hultman
About the Author
Connect with Todd:
@ToddHultman1