DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

 
Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Live Equiv $136.87 + 0.54*
Hogs: Steady Futures: mixed Lean Equiv $ 76.21 - $1.90**




* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Given the general lack of trade volume generated in feedlot country Monday through Wednesday, we assume that cattle buyers interrupt the long holiday weekend today in order complete minimal procurement chores. Asking prices should be restated around $131-plus in the South and $200-plus in the North. Both sides should want to complete business as soon as possible. The board is scheduled to settle an hour earlier than normal due to the holiday. Cattle futures should open moderately higher, supported by follow-through buying and optimistic cash expectations.

The cash hog trade should open with basically steady bids. Saturday kill plans are expected to total close to 360,000 head. Lean futures are geared to open on a mixed basis thanks to a combination of residual buying interest and pre-weekend profit taking.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Short-bought cattle buyers still need to secure sufficient numbers today in order to cover a full slaughter schedule next week, a task that could be further complicated by the winter's first significant storm.	1)	Though live futures closed moderately higher on Wednesday, the technical picture remains quite defensive. The market's short- and long-term downtrends remain intact, inviting both specs and commercials to sell rallies.
2)	The premium of nearby live contracts over the most recent feedlot sales implies a weaker late-year basis than normal, a reality that should work to fortify last week seller solver.	2)	The wide disparity in the cash trade between the Southern tier of cattle feeding country and the North suggests heavy cattle in the latter are still weighing on the front-end and limiting feeder leverage
3)	In bullish action supportive of significant bottoming action, spot December lean hog futures closed significantly higher on Wednesday, landing its best close since October 30.	3)	For the week ending 284.3 pounds, Iowa barrows and gilts averaged .6 pounds heavier than the prior week and 0.3 pounds larger than 2014.
4)	The week ending November 21 saw U.S. hatcheries set 215 million broiler eggs, down 1 percent from a year ago.	4)	The pork carcass value imploded at midweek with all primals significantly stripped except the belly.

Other Market News

CATTLE: (CNBC LLC) - One month after blurring the line between breakfast and other meal times, McDonald's is going one step further with a breakfast burger mashup sold at participating Chicago locations.

The "ChiTown Classic" includes Canadian bacon, an ingredient found on the breakfast menu in its Egg McMuffin and Egg White Delight sandwiches, and applewood smoked bacon. Two locations in Chicago told CNBC they began selling the burger last week. It will remain on the menu until Dec. 27, according to McDonald's spokeswoman Lisa McComb.

Although the burger includes Canadian bacon, which is currently only on the national breakfast menu, McComb said the market does not consider it a "breakfast-lunch mashup."

For now, the burger is a regional offering. It is one of two finalists in the chain's "Chicagoland Burger Build Off" competition, which drew thousands of entries.

But on Twitter, McDonald's corporate account has been telling customers they can also create their own mashups in restaurants by adding an egg to burgers at participating locations.

Last month, McDonald's launched extended breakfast hours, one of its biggest initiatives in years.

During its latest earnings conference call, McDonald's said breakfast sales, especially those of the McMuffin, helped contributed to its better-than-forecast results. After the chain transitioned back to the sandwich's original recipe with butter instead of margarine, it saw sales jump by double digits.

HOGS: (Washington Post) -Happy Thanksgiving! Pass the . . . ham?

If your holiday plans include friends or relatives from the millennial generation, odds are high that you might find a few less-than-traditional dishes on the Turkey Day menu: A recent Yahoo Food survey of more than 1,000 Americans age 18 and older showed that 20- and 30-somethings are driving a Thanksgiving dinner (r)evolution.

This probably should come as no surprise. Millennials — so often snarkily stereotyped as "entitled" or " bratty" or the "me, me, me" generation — are undeniable agents of change in culture, politics and the cities they live in. Why not Thanksgiving menus, too?

[As young people flood into the District, the only constant is change]

But what does this mean for a holiday steeped in tradition? It may mean pork instead of turkey, or more vegetarian options, or new twists on time-honored staples. Millennials (anyone currently age 18 to 34, per the Pew Research Center) are more likely to offer up more healthful versions of traditionally gluttonous recipes. They indulge in other ways, however: Although a notable 20 percent said they plan to skip alcohol this year, millennials are far more likely than their elders to have a seasonal cocktail or three with dinner.

Are these fleeting fads, or a glimpse of Thanksgiving Future? As boomer parents pass the hosting baton to their kids, millennials are assuming more control of the holiday program: Fifty-two percent will host their own dinner this year (vs. 41 percent of non-millennials), and most will invite friends to join in (Thanksgiving is no longer a family-only affair — witness the growing popularity of Friendsgiving). So the Thanksgiving spread increasingly reflects the discerning palates of a younger generation.

After reviewing the survey results and consulting with a few millennials, we found that a few key trends stood out:

The relationship between millennials and the Thanksgiving turkey is no longer exclusive. Nearly half of all surveyed millennials — 44 percent — plan to serve ham instead of or in addition to turkey this year. Maybe Liz Lemon's ham obsession left a lasting cultural impact?

Or perhaps it's because 20- and 30-somethings are more likely than their elders to attend more than one Thanksgiving celebration — and who wants to eat the same thing twice?

Andrew Kohout, 33, of Laytonsville, Md., and his wife are hosting one Thanksgiving dinner and attending another, so non-traditional entrees such as ham (and Tofurky and smoked turkey) have found their way onto the family menu to avoid repetition, he says.

But it was definitely the young adults in the group who decided that it was time to add ham. "My mom wouldn't have done that," Kohout says. "Everyone has a different opinion on what they'd like to eat now. It's sort of like the whole craft beer movement — everyone expects things to be catered to their own liking."

Yep, sounds millennial.

If you favor a homemade cranberry relish or the still-shaped-like-the-can-it-came-in variety, you're among a dwindling number of fans: The survey shows that the staple side dish is falling out of favor across the board, but especially among millennials, who are twice as likely not to serve it.

That sounds about right to District resident Amanda Cutright, 31, who will be hosting Thanksgiving for her family and friends and has no qualms about leaving cranberry sauce off the menu.

"The first year I served Thanksgiving, I cooked all these fancy cranberry sauces. And we decided that we didn't like any of them," she says. "Then, the past two or three years, we just forgot about it. So I won't serve cranberry sauce this year."

It's no shocker that the vast majority of Americans are still serving an actual turkey on Thanksgiving. But 10 percent said they're substituting or adding a meatless entree, and millennials are three times as likely to dine on Tofurky than their elders.

Vegetarian Michaela Friedman, 27, says her family will be sticking to the traditional menu lineup this year, but she's planning to prepare her first Tofurky. It may not win any converts, but she's going to give it her best shot.

John Harrington can be reached at feelofthemarket@yahoo.com
Follow John Harrington on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(CZ)

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