DTN Closing Grain Comments

Soybeans Lead Grains Higher

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn closed up 1 3/4 cents in the December contract and up 3 1/4 cents in the July. Soybeans closed up 11 1/2 cents in the January contract and up 11 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 1 cent in the March Chicago contract, down 1/2 cent in the March Kansas City, and up 1/4 cent in the March Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is up .23 at 99.82. December gold is down $3.20 at $1,070.60 while December silver is up $.02 and December copper is down $.0080. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 35 at 17,847. January crude oil is down $.10 at $42.77. January heating oil is down .0011 while January RBOB gasoline is down $.0089 and January natural gas is down .010.

Corn:

March corn ended higher Wednesday, helped by news from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that ethanol production jumped to a new record high of 1.008 million barrels a day last week. The news is, at least, short-term bullish for corn demand as the higher pace of production is likely related to the availability of corn at harvest. Those holding shorts in corn may also have taken protection ahead of the holiday with a Thanksgiving storm expected to bring everything from a chance for flash flooding to ice and snow across the central U.S. March corn remains under bearish pressure, but is doing well to hold above the November low of $3.64 1/4, especially as the U.S. dollar keeps trading higher. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.44 Tuesday, priced 20 cents below the December contract and will stay below the 200-day average on Wednesday evening. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up .23 with unconfirmed talk that the European Central Bank is considering more monetary easing.

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Soybeans:

January soybeans posted its highest close in two weeks Wednesday, helped by a return of commercial buying after USDA said 7.0 million bushels (190,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2015-16. In addition to the sale, there are concerns about the slow pace of soybean planting in Brazil likely making some shorts nervous even with helpful chances for scattered showers in central Brazil this weekend. This week's higher soybean prices are setting up for a possible weekly reversal on Friday for any close above $8.67 1/2. If that happens, it would be another bullish technical clue for soybean prices -- especially surprising given this week's concerns that Argentina may be about to release more supplies. January soybeans remain under bearish pressure, but are proving to be more stable with increased commercial support at these low prices. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.19 Monday, priced 45 cents below the November contract and below the 200-day average. USDA's weekly report of export sales will be released on Friday morning at 7:30 CST, before grains re-open at 8:30 a.m. CST.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed a little lower Wednesday with light volume and a narrow range that one might expect on the day before Thanksgiving. The weather forecast is not so quiet, however, with the Texas Panhandle in a winter storm watch and Oklahoma and Missouri in a flood watch. Aside from local threats, U.S. winter wheat crops are expecting a broad coverage of precipitation in the next five days that will be generally beneficial as we transition to winter. Outside of the U.S., Australia's forecast is favorable dry for early harvest. March Chicago wheat continues to trade in its sideways range with no significant threat to prices from either direction. DTN's National SRW Wheat Index closed at $4.42 Tuesday, priced 46 cents below the December contract and will remain below the 200-day average on Wednesday evening. DTN's National HRW Wheat Index closed at $4.07 Tuesday, staying below its 200-day average since early July. Trading in U.S. grain futures will resume Friday at 8:30 a.m. CST.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman