DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Black Friday Looking Winter-Like

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

Morning CME Globex Update:

Trading on Friday will resume at 8:30 a.m. CST. A winter storm is moving through the southern Plains early on Black Friday with ice and snow from the Texas Panhandle into Kansas. Moderate to heavy rain from central Texas to Michigan is also creating chances for flooding in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Lower
U.S. Dollar Index: Higher
Gold: Lower
Crude Oil: Lower

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Corn:

Early Friday, USDA said that last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 80.2 and 20.9 million bushels respectively, a combination that is heavy on sales, but light on shipments as usual for this time of year. The overall pace of sales and shipments is still bearish with the total for 2015-16 down 23% from a year ago, well below USDA's estimate of a 3% decline for exports. Friday's wintry weather will be stressful for livestock and travel, especially in the southwestern Plains where ice and snow have landed and Friday's high temperatures will remain below freezing for much of the western Plains. December corn may see some support from USDA's high sales number, but will likely trade steady to lower with pressure from Friday's higher U.S. dollar. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Wednesday, below the 200-day average and priced 27 cents below the March contract. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is up .32 with more talk of easing for Europe.

Soybeans:

Early Friday, USDA said that last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 43.1 and 70.3 million bushels respectively, a combination that maintains a neutral-to-bearish pace for soybeans. So far, soybean shipments in 20115-16 are just down 4% from a year ago, but sales and shipments are down 17% as China has been slow to come to the table. Also not helping soybeans, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 5.5% overnight after the government announced that it was investigating two of the nations's top brokerage firms. The bearish concern for China's market is also likely to have influence on Friday's soybean prices. In Brazil, significant rainfall is expected to help crops over the next five days. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.30 Wednesday, below the 200-day average and priced 46 cents below the January contract.

Wheat:

Early Friday, USDA said that last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 11.2 and 9.5 million bushels respectively, a bearish combination that keeps total sales and shipments for 2015-16 down 15% from a year ago, still below USDA's estimate of a 6% decline in exports. The southern Plains are getting a winter storm early Friday with ice and snow from the Texas Panhandle into Kansas while moderate to heavy rain amounts fall from central Texas into the eastern Midwest. Apart from areas of local flooding, the moisture should be beneficial overall to the winter wheat crops. March Chicago wheat is likely to keep trading within its same sideways range help from domestic demand. DTN's National SRW Wheat Index contract closed at $4.36 Wednesday, below the 200-day average and 51 cents below the March contract. Trading in U.S. grain futures will close early Friday, at 12:05 p.m. CST for the Chicago Board of Trade, and at 12:15 p.m. for Minneapolis grains.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman