DTN Early Word Grains

Cyber Monday Finds Grains Mixed

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was unchanged, January soybeans were fractionally higher, and March Chicago wheat was fractionally lower.

CME Globex Recap:

The grain complex was mixed early Monday, with wheat showing solid trade volume during the overnight trade session. Pressure in general continues to come from the U.S. dollar index that rallied another 0.200. The energy complex was higher overnight while gold posted a small loss.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 14.90 points lower Friday at 17,798.49. The NASDAQ Composite was up 11.38 points at 5,127.52. DJIA futures were 21 points higher overnight. Asian markets were mostly lower with the Nikkei down 136.47 points at 19,747.47 and China's Shanghai Composite up 0.84 points. European markets were mostly higher. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.240 at 100.260, its overnight high of 100.310 drawing closer to its long-term peak of 100.390. Crude oil was $0.52 higher at $42.23 while Brent crude was $0.63 higher at $45.49. February gold was $0.40 lower at $1,055.80. Dalian soybean futures were higher while Malaysian palm oil futures were lower.

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BULL BEAR
1)

Light spillover buying from soybeans could support corn Monday.

1) Weekly export inspections of corn are expected be neutral-to-bearish.
2) January soybeans now look technically bullish on both daily and weekly charts. 2) Total marketing year export inspections of soybeans are expected to lose more ground to last marketing year in Monday morning's report.
3) Wheat is sharply oversold (technically), possibly leading to a round of noncommercial short-covering. 3) The stronger U.S. dollar index could keep pressure on the wheat market.

See Grain Archives for more information on the fundamental situation in grains. See the DTN Ag Weather Brief for complete market weather comments.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN March corn posted a quiet overnight session, moving in a trading range of only 1 1/2 cents. However, trade volume registered at 16,100 contracts through early Monday morning. Look for the market to continue to trade sideways with little interest from either commercial or noncommercial traders. Weekly export inspections are expected to be neutral-to-bearish at best, with holiday-delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders expected to show another decrease in the noncommercial net-long futures positon (as of the week ending Tuesday, November 24). National average basis weakened by about 1 cent last week, with Friday's DTN National Corn Index calculated near $3.39 1/2, roughly 27 3/4 cents under the close of the March futures contract. There were no deliveries reported against the December contract.

SOYBEANS January soybeans are now in an uptrend on both its daily (short-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) charts. However, buying interest was light overnight with trade volume coming in at only 6,700 contracts. Technically, short-term resistance is at Wednesday's high of $8.77 3/4, then the 20-day moving average calculated at $8.82 1/2. Resistance on the weekly chart is at the 4-week high of $8.91, though that is unlikely to come into play Monday. National average basis weakened by about 1 cent last week with Friday's DTN National Soybean Index calculated near $8.27, roughly 45 3/4 cents under the close of the January futures contract. Total weekly export inspections could lose ground to last marketing year once again when the numbers are released mid-morning.

WHEAT The wheat complex remains sharply oversold on both daily and weekly charts, though little buying interest was seen overnight. However, the March Chicago issue showed impressive trade volume of 25,500 contracts through early Monday morning. Some of this could be due to the large initial delivery number of 2,343 contracts against the December issue. Kansas City December saw 198 contracts delivered. Fundamentally there remains little news for traders to get excited about, with weekly export inspections expected to be neutral-to-bearish once again. Monday afternoon's holiday-delayed release of weekly Commitment of Traders figures is expected to show noncommercial traders increasing their net-short futures position.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.39 -$0.07 -$0.28 Mar -$0.011
Soybeans: $8.27 -$0.03 -$0.46 Jan -$0.003
SRW Wheat: $4.24 -$0.12 -$0.55 Mar -$0.037
HRW Wheat: $3.99 -$0.07 -$0.67 Mar -$0.012
HRS Wheat: $4.93 -$0.04 -$0.13 Mar -$0.009

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(CZ)

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