USDA: Record Corn, Soy Production

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA increased its corn production estimate to 14.5 billion bushels and its soybean estimate to 3.9 bb in the latest Crop Production report. Both would be records.

The national average corn yield came in at 174.2 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bpa from USDA's September estimates. USDA pegged the national average soybean yield at 47.1 bpa, up .5 bpa.

Farmers will likely harvest 83.1 million acres of corn and 83.4 million acres of soybeans.

All of USDA's crop production figures came in close to the average pre-report estimate.

USDA also released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that incorporated information from the September 30 Grain Stocks report.

CORN

USDA boosted 2013-14 ending stocks by 55 million bushels to 1.236 bb. The largest change was a 50 mb reduction of feed and residual use. Ending stocks-to-use was estimated at 9.1%.

New-crop ending stocks also increased to 2.081 bb, a 79 mb increase. With the higher production forecast, a 5 mb reduction in forecasted imports and increased beginning stocks, total supply increased by 129 mb. USDA boosted feed and residual by 50 mb and left all other demand categories unchanged.

The stocks-to-use ratio increased to 15.2%, up from 14.7% last month.

Globally, USDA estimates 2014-15 ending stocks at 109.6 million metric tons, within the range of pre-report estimates. USDA left Brazil and Argentina production estimated unchanged from last month at 75 mmt and 23 mmt respectively.

SOYBEANS

USDA made several adjustments to 2013-14 soybean supply and demand to arrive at its ending stocks figure of 92 mb. It incorporated the revised soybean production estimate of 3.36 bb, an increase of 69 mb. USDA increased crush by 4 mb and exports by 2 mb. The ending stocks-to-use ratio dropped to 2.6%.

On new crop, USDA lowered its beginning stocks figure by 38 mb and increased production by 14 mb from last month, resulting in a 24 mb decline in total supplies.

USDA made no changes to demand, resulting in an ending stocks estimate of 450 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio declined to 12.6% from 13.3% last month.

Globally, USDA sees 2014-15 ending stocks at 90.7 mmt. It left Brazil and Argentina soybean production unchanged from last month at 94 mmt and 55 mmt respectively.

The global stocks-to-use ratio came in at 31.9%.

WHEAT

USDA lowered 2014-15 ending stocks by 44 mb to 654 mb. On the supply side, USDA increased production by 5 mb. USDA also revised its feed and residual use estimate upwards by 25 mb and its estimate for exports by 25 mb. The ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at 30.5%.

Globally, USDA trimmed its ending stocks estimate by 3.9 mmt to 192.6 mmt. It was the only number in USDA's report that came in below the range of pre-report expectations. While USDA increased its global production forecast, it was outweighed by a 4 mmt increase in total use.

USDA trimmed Canada's production estimate to 27.5 mmt from 28 mmt. USDA also cut production in the 12 former Soviet Union countries to 111.6 mmt.

The stocks-to-use ratio declined to 27% from 27.7% last month.

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2014-15
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2013-14
Corn	14,474	14,523	14,925	14,300	14,395	13,925
Soybeans	3,927	3,977	4,104	3,914	3,913	3,358
Grain Sorghum	404	434	441	427	430	389
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2014-15
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2013-14
Corn	174.2	174.7	178.1	172.3	171.7	158.8
Soybeans	47.1	47.6	48.8	46.9	46.6	44.0
U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2014-15
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2013-14
Corn	83.1	83.3	83.8	82.3	83.8	87.7
Soybeans	83.4	83.7	84.1	82.5	84.1	76.3
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2014-15							Sep*
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2013-14	2013-14
Corn	2,081	2,144	2,518	1,944	2,002	1,181	1,236
Soybeans	450	478	550	376	475	130	92
Grain Sorghum	38	35	40	30	30	20	34
Wheat	654	704	736	625	698	590
* Adjusted quarterly stocks numbers
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Metric Tons) 2014-2015
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2013-14
Corn	190.6	192.6	200.2	188.9	189.9	173.1
Soybeans	90.7	90.9	96.9	88.5	90.2	66.9
Wheat	192.6	196.8	198.1	194.4	196.5	186.5
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)
		2014-15			2013-14
		Oct	Sep		Oct	Sep
Canada wheat		27.5	28.0		37.5	37.5
FSU - 12		111.6	112.2		103.9	103.9
Argentine corn		23.0	23.0		25.0	25.0
Brazil corn		75.0	75.0		79.3	79.3
Argentine soybeans		55.0	55.0		54.0	54.0
Brazil soybeans		94.0	94.0		86.7	86.7

(AG)

Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.