Fill the Plate

Technology, Innovation Will Help Agriculture Meet Global Food Demands

(Progressive Farmer photo illustration by Donovan Harris and Barry Falkner/ThinkStock Images)

As youngsters, we're told to eat everything on our plates. Sadly, in many parts of the world, there's little food to even fill one plate. And with another 2 billion people to feed by 2050, global food security will be increasingly challenging. Consider:

-- From 2000 to 2030, it's estimated world demand for rice will grow 28%, wheat 40%, corn 76%, cotton 102% and soybeans 125%.

-- The average rate of crop yield growth will almost have to double during the next 36 years to satisfy the world's appetite without putting more land into production.

-- The World Resources Institute (WRI) December 2013 report, "Creating a Sustainable Food Future," says the calorie level produced in 2006 must increase 69% by 2050. Total crop production will have to increase 11% more than it did from 1962 to 2006 while meat and milk production will have to go up 40%. (See www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI13_Report_4c_WRR_online.pdf.)

This growing food gap underlines the need for continued innovation to take yields to the next level. The world will look to U.S. agriculture to lead the way. Still, it will be a daunting task to grow enough food to meet global demand. Can we get there?

GLOBAL COLLABORATION

Straddling the Wyoming/Colorado high-country border along the Little Snake River, with headquarters at about 7,000 feet above sea level, the Ladder Ranch seems far removed from the harsh realities of the planet's hungry masses. Yet, Pat O'Toole, head of the family running the big cattle and sheep ranch, finds himself right in the middle of the discussion about how to feed the world.

With an arm gesturing out the window of his pickup truck at a cow nosing a new calf, he says, "It's not about just doing things but about doing the right things. Everybody doesn't get along, and that's just reality; but the only way to get it done is trust. Let's find solutions and make plans together. Let's get conservationists and agriculture people talking. Let's find ways to do conservation better. We need to double the food supply in the next four decades. We can't be successful if we're not working together."

Jim Borel, executive vice president at DuPont, agrees. "We are making progress on global food security, but it will take continued collaboration among all stakeholders, greater innovation and investment in agriculture, food and nutrition, and better government policies to overcome the vast challenges of ending hunger and feeding the world's population."

He cites the progress being made from results in the 2014 Global Food Security Index. It shows 70% of countries in the study increased their food-security scores during 2013. The index measures the drivers of food security in 109 countries. It was developed in 2012 by the Economist Intelligence Unit and commissioned by DuPont. According to the 2014 index, the number of people suffering from chronic hunger dropped from 868 million to 842 million from 2013.

NEW IDEAS

O'Toole, a former state legislator long involved in western agricultural policy organizations, thinks about solutions to food security often now that he sits on the steering committee of the Farm Foundation's Dialogue on Food and Agriculture in the 21st Century. He's also on the advisory committee for AGree, an organization working to elevate food and agriculture as a national priority. In order to feed the world, we need transformative ideas, he says. "My concept is a national conservation bank that would provide cost-shares for conservation along with money to get young people involved in agriculture. The government needs to empower the adaptive capability of farmers, not control them more," O'Toole says.

He stresses that adaptive capability is important because of the role U.S. agriculture will play in feeding the world. "The three most productive pieces of land in the world are Ukraine, the U.S. Midwest and the Argentine Pampas," O'Toole points out. "Argentina's economy has been terrible for the past half-century or more. Do we want to depend on that? How about Ukraine? Look at what's going on there. Do we want to depend on them for food?" he asks.

"It's up to the U.S.," O'Toole continues. "There are lots of ideas we could implement with enough time and money. We've been disincentivizing young people from getting into agriculture. The message they get is that it's a tough business, and regulations are going to make it tougher. That must change if we're going to feed the growing population."

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HELPING HAND

Of course the U.S. alone can't feed the world. Every country will have to do its part. The WRI's report, for example, concludes Sub-Saharan Africa will need to more than triple its crop production between 2006 and 2050 to provide adequate food per capita, given projected population growth.

The report also surmises that focusing on bringing the most inefficient farmers up to standard farming efficiency levels will help close yield gaps (the difference between a farm's actual yields and its potential yields) and improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This includes ensuring that women farmers have access to the same resources and technology—such as fertilizer, seeds, finance and land—as male farmers. Women produce between 60 and 80% of food crops in developing countries.

Still, technology's influence on boosting yields around the world will vary greatly because of the wide differences in science sophistication and rate of technology adoption among farmers. That makes achieving food security even more challenging.

A recent report from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) identified agricultural technologies that could benefit developing countries. In "Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies," IFPRI uses a unique data model to pinpoint the agricultural technologies and practices that can most significantly reduce food prices and food insecurity in developing nations. (See www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/oc76.pdf.)

Three key findings:

-- No-till farming alone could increase corn yields by 20%; irrigating the same no-till fields could increase yields by 67% by 2050.

-- Nitrogen use efficiency could increase rice crop yields by 22%, but irrigation could increase yields by another 21%.

-- Heat-tolerant wheat varieties could increase yields 17%, and with irrigation 23%.

Mark Rosegrant, the lead author of the study and director of IFPRI's environment and production technology division, says farmers from developing countries can't duplicate America's tech prowess. "Some technologies like precision agriculture, where the U.S. has a leadership position, is viewed as a model of what needs to be done. But the pathways the U.S. has followed aren't something that can be replicated in most instances in other countries."

Rosegrant stresses technology and innovation are the single biggest keys to meeting global food demand. "But the reality is no single agricultural technology or farming practice will provide sufficient food for the world in 2050. Instead, it will require a broad utilization of lower, simpler technology with high technology to maximize yields."

Monsanto's Robb Fraley agrees. The company's executive vice president and chief technology officer predicts future advances in agricultural technology will be realized from a combination of five distinct technology platforms: breeding, biotechnology, crop protection, biological and data science. These multiple platforms will progress and combine to enable farmers to operate more efficiently and farm more sustainably.

"We must continue to invest in innovations that will help to safely and sustainably feed our rapidly growing population ...," Fraley said as he accepted the 2013 World Food Prize, given annually to recognize contributions to global food security.

NEW REVOLUTION

Society assumes agricultural technology will simply continue getting better—and with it, yields, as it has in the U.S. for generations. However, the industry's innovation will need to shift into a higher gear to keep pace with the growing global population.

"We think a lot about our role and liken it to years ago when Norman Borlaug created the Green Revolution. There needs to be a new agricultural revolution to feed this growing population," says David Hollinrake, Bayer CropScience vice president of agricultural commercial operations marketing. "For the industry, it's a great position to be in. Agriculture is an exciting place to work right now."

Hollinrake anticipates greater collaboration in order to push the industry forward. "We don't believe one company can do it alone, feeding 21/2 billion more people [by 2050]. We're going to need 75% more food. That requires all the hearts, minds, arms and legs we can get. What I see happening is an open architecture so everyone can participate. We're going to see four- and five-way trait stacks, some from us, some from our competitors, that will allow farmers to have options. Collaboration will be the new norm as we go forward," he explains.

Gerald Tumbleson hopes that's the case but worries about societal fears and pressures stopping scientific and technological advancement that could increase food supply. Farming the deep, productive soils near Sherburn, in southern Minnesota, Tumbleson served as National Corn Growers Association president in 2004--2005 and remains active with the state association.

NO HOLDING BACK

"My concern is whether our government will allow us to think and get things done, whether it will restrict our ability to produce because people want to go back to the past because of some idea they have that farms have to be like granddad's farm," Tumbleson says.

"We're doing things today that weren't even in my dreams when I started farming. It makes me nervous, though, that there's a move to limit the brain to do the research we need for the future."

If the way clears for big thinkers to develop technology, both agriculture and society will see great benefits, Tumbleson says.

"Food will be a minor part of it. We'll produce the food. It's the medicines and the energy we get off these soils that will be the big deal. If society will allow us to do it, it's going to be done. You get ahead in the world by entrepreneurship. That's how it will happen," he says.

ADVANCES FOR OTHER CROPS

Entrepreneurship will also drive leaps in productivity in coming years for wheat and grain sorghum.

"Wheat has been very dependent on public funding, and because of that, has had a tremendous opportunity to develop locally adapted varieties. But with other crops like corn and soybeans, private investment has been the key to the increases in yield and efficiency. On balance, wheat needs to increase public expenditures and attract an appropriate level of private investment," says Burleson Smith, director of research and technology for the National Association of Wheat Growers and director of the Wheat Innovation Alliance.

In the southeastern corner of Colorado, Terry Swanson farms in a dry and windy part of the High Plains, where just planting a crop can be a big challenge. A past chairman of the National Sorghum Producers, Swanson lives daily with water problems. It gives him an understanding of where agriculture may head as water resources dwindle.

"Where water is short, we have to create the most calories per gallon of water that we can. It isn't bushels per acre. It's calories per gallon. If we're going to be sustainable in the High Plains region, we're going to have to have low consumptive use of water. That calls for sorghum," he says.

"Right now, the U.S. lags way behind in producing food-grade sorghum. In a lot of places in the world, this is their staple food of choice. We're going to see a lot of changes. We're going to have to feed more with less input. We may have to shorten the food chain. Producing protein takes a lot of water. I don't know exactly what the changes will be, but we're going to have to start developing more water-efficient plants."

There's little doubt the world's farmers face many hurdles to satisfy a hungry planet. Some of the obstacles -- trade, politics, infrastructure, weather, for example -- are largely out of their control. But when it comes to what happens in the field, technology will drive yields higher to help fill the plates of 9 billion people.

Progressive Farmer Editor-in-Chief Gregg Hillyer contributed to this article.

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