DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- One fertilizer's average retail price finally moved significantly from last month to this month, according to data tracked by DTN for the third week of December 2014.

Six of the eight major fertilizers registered slightly lower prices compared to a month earlier, while the remaining two were up just slightly. Urea slipped 6% compared to a month ago, the first price move of any consequence in many months. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $461 per ton.

DAP, MAP, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32 were all also lower in price compared to the previous month, but none were down with any significance. DAP had an average price of $565/ton, MAP $592/ton, anhydrous $705/ton, UAN28 $322/ton and UAN32 $362/ton.

The remaining two fertilizers were higher in price compared to a month earlier, but again these moves were fairly insignificant. Potash had an average price of $482/ton and 10-34-0 $571/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.50/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.58/lb.N and UAN32 $0.57/lb.N.

In the last three weeks of the calendar year, we are looking back at the top three issues which affected retail fertilizer the most during 2014. This week we look back at top story No. 2 -- retail fertilizer prices staying steady while commodity prices fell in mid-summer of 2014. The stalemate has led to above-normal uncertainty for the spring 2015 market.

In June, commodity prices began to decline with the large size of the crops being reported. Grain prices fell hard, roughly around 40% of their value during this time, and it was fully expected retail fertilizer prices would also fall sometime after.

Fertilizer retailers, farmers and agronomists all reported that crop profitably would be a serious question if retail fertilizer prices did not decline as commodities did. Most believed retail fertilizer prices would retreat in the weeks after the fall of commodity prices, as this was the general pattern -- commodities drop in price and in the period after, fertilizer would surely follow.

Mid-summer turned to fall and retail fertilizer prices never did see a significant price decline. There were price movements both higher and lower, but the decline to match the drop in commodities never really materialized.

This retail fertilizer price situation made farmers question their fertilizer application plans with crop breakevens being so tight. Late harvest, on top of an expected cutback in 2015 corn acres and more conservative usage, also slowed nitrogen applications. By the end of November, Rabobank estimates that Midwest growers had applied only 50% to 60% of their normal anhydrous applications.

The question still remains how much fertilizer, mostly P and K, will be applied this spring. If commodity prices rise or retail fertilizer prices fall, will farmers be more willing to apply more fertilizer? Will all acres be able to be covered in just one application season instead of two?

These are questions which will be answered this spring.

What was the No. 1 fertilizer-related news story of 2014? Stay tuned to next week's fertilizer column.

Half of the eight major fertilizers are now double digits higher in price compared to December 2013, all while commodity prices are significantly lower than a year ago. DAP is now 14% higher while 10-34-0 is 12% more expensive and both MAP and anhydrous are both 11% higher compared to year earlier.

In addition, urea is 3% higher and both potash and UAN28 are 2% higher from last year.

One nutrient is still lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. UAN32 is 1% less expensive from the previous year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business. The index shows the change in average retail prices from one week to the next rather than from one month to the next as this column does.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 13-17 2014	493.34	519.89	471.73	465.01
Feb 10-14 2014	527.78	553.92	470.46	508.67
Mar 10-14 2014	558.45	577.13	473.87	533.23
Apr 7-11 2014	584.87	605.54	475.15	548.32
May 5-9 2014	594.55	630.61	479.49	559.25
June 2-6 2014	596.82	631.02	482.42	543.64
June 30-July 4 2014	592.12	623.37	483.44	535.10
July 28-Aug 1 2014	587.31	609.74	475.58	519.21
August 25-29 2014	586.52	607.17	475.65	516.29
Sept 22-26 2014	579.22	599.82	475.64	509.56
Oct 20-24 2014	582.46	598.88	477.43	506.85
Nov 17-21 2014	575.78	594.94	479.35	492.80
Dec 15-19 2014	564.72	591.67	482.39	461.09
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 13-17 2014	504.00	614.97	320.62	366.78
Feb 10-14 2014	505.05	619.93	338.07	383.38
Mar 10-14 2014	514.72	626.75	345.11	391.51
Apr 7-11 2014	516.49	675.28	351.74	397.89
May 5-9 2014	550.88	698.48	353.18	405.52
June 2-6 2014	561.77	707.91	356.91	404.41
June 30-July 4 2014	564.07	694.07	352.39	401.29
July 28-Aug 1 2014	542.15	670.65	338.26	379.15
August 25-29 2014	555.46	698.82	332.67	377.29
Sept 22-26 2014	554.72	694.20	329.21	377.16
Oct 20-24 2014	556.89	696.76	326.78	369.01
Nov 17-21 2014	559.98	708.90	322.12	366.39
Dec 15-19 2014	571.32	704.60	322.03	361.80

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.