DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Retail Fertilizer Prices Continue Unmoved

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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At a national average price of $579 per ton, DAP prices remain 10% above year-ago levels. Sluggish sales are causing manufacturers like Mosaic to curb phosphate fertilizer production. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- As has been the case in recent weeks, retail fertilizer prices continued to be extremely steady the last week of September, according to retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN.

Half of the eight major fertilizers registered lower prices compared to a month earlier while the other half were higher. Neither group featured a significant move in either direction.

DAP, urea, UAN28 and UAN32 were slightly lower in price compared to a month previous while MAP, potash, 10-34-0 and anhydrous were a tad higher.

DAP averaged $579/ton, urea $514/ton, UAN28 $328/ton and UAN32 $373/ton. MAP averaged $599/ton, potash $477/ton, 10-34-0 $556/ton and anhydrous $695/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.56/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.59/lb.N and UAN32 $0.58/lb.N.

Fertilizer giant Mosaic Co. announced last week it plans to curb phosphate fertilizer production because of high sulfur and ammonia prices, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The pull-back will not result in any employee layoffs but will lead to lower operating rates at the company's mines and concentrates plants, the company stated.

"Phosphate raw material input costs are disconnected from fundamental agricultural economics, and have escalated despite weaker grain and oilseed prices," said Jim Prokopanko, Mosaic Co. chief executive.

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It will be interesting to see what, if any, Mosaic's decision has on retail fertilizer. Normally, cutting supply tends to raise prices. The company said in the article it will focus on margins in the near term and limit the buildup of inventory during the seasonally-slow part of the year.

The company also stated it expects potash and phosphate sales volumes to be at or near the lower end of the "previously communicated ranges" for the third quarter.

"The less-optimistic guidance stems from weather-driven production outages in potash and by timing of shipments in phosphates," the article states.

DTN's retail surveys confirm Prokopanko's comments about phosphate raw material input costs being "disconnected from fundamental agricultural economics." Two of the eight major fertilizers are now double digits higher in price compared to September/October of 2013, all while commodity prices are significantly lower from a year ago. Urea is up 16% compared to last year, followed by DAP at 10% more than a year ago.

In addition, anhydrous is now up 7% with both MAP and 10-34-0 6% more expensive. UAN28 is 2% higher and UAN32 is 1% more expensive.

Potash remains the only nutrient which is still lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. It is down 4%.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Oct 28-Nov 1 2013 523.36 564.75 491.07 441.02
Nov 25-29 2013 516.85 556.86 485.93 439.27
Dec 23-27 2013 496.17 525.86 477.84 449.69
Jan 20-24 2014 510.00 536.63 471.71 488.90
Feb 17-21 2014 535.55 559.68 472.27 519.11
Mar 17-21 2014 541.13 561.43 472.44 521.67
Apr 14-18 2014 586.08 617.31 475.35 552.05
May 12-16 2014 594.90 630.50 479.36 554.53
June 9-13 2014 594.89 630.38 482.44 540.98
July 7-11 2014 590.78 620.65 483.28 531.43
Aug 4-8 2014 589.39 608.48 473.84 517.53
Sept 1-5 2014 581.00 599.00 475.00 517.00
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014 579.41 599.03 477.53 514.15
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Oct 28-Nov 1 2013 519.29 653.36 321.39 368.60
Nov 25-29 2013 516.31 644.79 320.12 364.75
Dec 23-27 2013 507.53 624.84 317.10 363.75
Jan 20-24 2014 498.30 616.24 331.83 374.28
Feb 17-21 2014 509.21 620.03 340.83 386.60
Mar 17-21 2014 509.47 620.96 341.37 387.11
Apr 14-18 2014 524.72 684.72 354.44 400.79
May 12-16 2014 551.66 698.63 354.96 405.75
June 9-13 2014 561.88 702.80 357.13 404.87
July 7-11 2014 561.03 686.30 347.51 399.06
Aug 4-8 2014 556.30 685.44 337.15 377.67
Sept 1-5 2014 555.00 683.00 330.00 377.00
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014 555.61 695.24 328.09 373.44

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

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Russ Quinn