DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Few Buyers Booking Fall Orders

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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UAN32 led the drop in retail fertilizer prices this week. Compared to a month earlier, the national average liquid fertilizer price dipped 6% to $379/ton, down from a high of $406 in May. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to slide lower the last week of July 2014, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN.

For the third week in a row, prices for all eight major fertilizers slipped. Only one was down with any significance: UAN32 dropped 6% compared to a month earlier. The nitrogen fertilizer's average price was $379 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were just slightly lower. DAP had an average price of $587/ton, MAP $610/ton, potash $476/ton, urea $519/ton, 10-34-0 $542/ton, anhydrous $671/ton and UAN28 $338/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.56/lb.N, anhydrous $0.41/lb.N, UAN28 $0.60/lb.N and UAN32 $0.59/lb.N.

Mid-summer is a time when some farmers will begin to lock a portion of their fertilizer needs. However, with commodity prices falling this year and retail fertilizer predicted to do the same in the near future, the number of farmers pre-purchasing fertilizer could be fairly small before the fall fertilizer application season.

John Moore farms near Manhattan, Ill. He has not locked in any fertilizer yet for his northern Illinois farming operation.

"We generally wait to see what crops we think are out there and make sure the bills all get paid before we think about new fertilizer," Moore told DTN in an email. "(It) might not be the smartest way to do things, but I was always taught you pay your bills before you start spending again."

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Moore added he will order fertilizer in February before spring application, but he doesn't do too much pricing in the fall. He said he had a couple of neighbors who pre-priced fertilizer for their strip-till practice in the past and they really got burned because fertilizer prices decreased after they locked in their fertilizer.

Cory Ritter, who farms near Blue Mound, Ill., is another farmer in no rush to lock in fertilizer prices. The central Illinois farmer is waiting to see at what level inputs settle before committing much of his fertilizer needs.

"I am thinking a lot of games will be played with inputs," Ritter said in an email. "I am thinking about waiting until spring for my dry (fertilizer)."

Farther to the east, Gerald Gauck farms in Milan, Ind., in the southeastern area of the Hoosier State. Like Moore and Ritter, Gauck has yet to lock in his any of his fertilizer needs.

"We're waiting," Gauck emailed. "With low crop prices, maybe we'll get a better (fertilizer) price break."

While fertilizers have moved lower recently, just one of the eight major fertilizers is now double digits lower in price compared to August of 2013.

Urea remains 3% higher compared to last year while DAP has increased 1% and MAP is nearly unchanged. Anhydrous is down 6% and UAN28 is now 8% less expensive. Both 10-34-0 and UAN32 are 9% lower while potash is 15% less expensive compared to a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices by state in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's national average retail fertilizer prices ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 26-30 2013 564.50 594.24 531.41 481.92
Sep 23-27, 2013 532.86 571.04 499.91 444.32
Oct 21-25, 2013 524.01 565.63 491.41 441.67
Nov 18-22 2013 515.37 557.97 485.50 438.19
Dec 16-20 2013 497.65 533.70 480.02 447.94
Jan 13-17 2014 493.34 519.89 471.73 465.01
Feb 10-14 2014 527.78 553.92 470.46 508.67
Mar 10-14 2014 558.45 577.13 473.87 533.23
Apr 7-11 2014 584.87 605.54 475.15 548.32
May 5-9 2014 594.55 630.61 479.49 559.25
June 2-6 2014 596.82 631.02 482.42 543.64
June 30-July 4 2014 592.12 623.37 483.44 535.10
July 28-Aug 1 2014 587.31 609.74 475.58 519.21
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 26-30 2013 552.44 685.34 343.52 386.94
Sep 23-27, 2013 524.99 653.70 325.42 369.09
Oct 21-25, 2013 523.89 653.54 323.15 367.11
Nov 18-22 2013 517.32 643.75 320.18 365.16
Dec 16-20 2013 509.31 632.82 317.84 363.29
Jan 13-17 2014 504.00 614.97 320.62 366.78
Feb 10-14 2014 505.05 619.93 338.07 383.38
Mar 10-14 2014 514.72 626.75 345.11 391.51
Apr 7-11 2014 516.49 675.28 351.74 397.89
May 5-9 2014 550.88 698.48 353.18 405.52
June 2-6 2014 561.77 707.91 356.91 404.41
June 30-July 4 2014 564.07 694.07 352.39 401.29
July 28-Aug 1 2014 542.15 670.65 338.26 379.15

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

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Russ Quinn