DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to slowly drift lower, according to sellers tracked by DTN for the fifth week of September 2015.

Only one fertilizer type had a price decline of any significance. Potash was down 5% compared to last month with an average price of $450/ton. This is the lowest average potash price in the history of the DTN retail fertilizer prices, which began in November 2008.

The remaining seven major fertilizers were just slightly lower in price compared to a month prior.

DAP had an average price of $561/ton, MAP $573/ton, urea $424/ton, 10-34-0 $594/ton, anhydrous $644/ton, UAN28 $295/ton and UAN32 $342/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.46/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.53/lb.N and UAN32 $0.53/lb.N.

With fluctuating commodity and fertilizer prices, the University of Illinois has revised its 2016 crop budgets. In a farmdoc dailynewsletter titled "Revision to 2016 Crop Budgets: Lower Projected Returns," Gary Schnitkey said crop budgets have significantly changed since June 2015.

The corn and soybean crop budgets estimated for farmland in central Illinois, based on expected lower returns for commodities, showed lower costs for fertilizer, fuel and oil and machinery depreciation.

One area of the crop budgets was adjusted higher. The government farm programs Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) shifted slightly higher.

Fertilizer costs for corn after soybeans were lower from $148 per acre in June to $130 per acre in the September version. The fertilizer costs for soybeans after corn shifted lower from $45 per acre to $35 per acre.

"In the September budgets, operator and land returns are projected at $256 per acre for corn and $195 per acre for soybeans," Schnitkey wrote. "A rotation containing 50% corn and 50% soybean has projected operator and land return of $226 per acre, implying that cash rents should be below $226 per acre for the farm to have a positive return."

The June crop budgets had operator and land returns for corn at $278 per acre and soybeans at $237 per acre.

The farmdoc daily report can be found at http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/….

Comparing current retail fertilizer prices to year-ago levels, DTN reporting shows only one crop nutrient type, 10-34-0, is higher, up 7% higher from last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to a year ago. DAP is 3% lower, MAP is 4% less expensive, potash 6% lower, anhydrous is 7% lower, UAN32 is 9% less expensive, UAN28 is 10% lower and urea is 18% less expensive from a year previous.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to Nov. of 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014	579	599	478	514
Oct 27-31 2014	579	598	478	503
Nov 24-28 2014	576	595	480	492
Dec 22-26 2014	566	593	485	462
Jan 19-23 2015	568	596	487	469
Feb 16-20 2015	568	597	495	472
Mar 16-20 2015	570	597	490	470
Apr 13-17 2015	570	598	491	453
May 11-15 2015	570	598	491	457
June 8-12 2015	571	598	491	461
July 6-10 2015	570	596	489	470
Aug 3-7 2015	567	591	482	464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	564	583	471	439
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	561	573	450	424
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sept 29-Oct 3 2014	556	695	328	374
Oct 27-31 2014	558	701	327	373
Nov 24-28 2014	564	712	323	368
Dec 22-26 2014	573	706	320	362
Jan 19-23 2015	585	707	326	367
Feb 16-20 2015	593	706	330	370
Mar 16-20 2015	614	705	332	368
Apr 13-17 2015	649	711	332	370
May 11-15 2015	653	711	331	371
June 8-12 2015	649	709	331	371
July 6-10 2015	640	695	327	366
Aug 3-7 2015	628	677	318	354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	602	659	304	349
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	594	644	295	342

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(CZ)

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