Canada Markets

U.S. Final Wheat Acres Compared to the Prospective Planting Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the percent change between estimated planted acres of wheat from the Prospective Plantings report released in the U.S. in March to the final reported acres for all-wheat, soft red winter wheat, hard red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat and durum. The greatest variability is seen in hard red spring and durum over the past five years. (DTN Graphic by Nick Scalise)

The March 31 Prospective Plantings report indicated that 2015 all-wheat acres will decline to 55.4 million acres in the United States in 2015, slightly below the average of analyst's pre-report estimates reported by Dow Jones. This acreage would reflect a three-year low in area seeded to wheat while .7% above the five-year average.

Hard red winter wheat acres were estimated at 29.6 ma, 3% below last year and slightly higher than the five-year average. Soft red winter wheat acres were forecast at 7.75 ma, down 8.8% from 2014 and would result in the lowest acreage planted in five years. This area would be slightly lower than the five-year average.

Spring wheat acres were reported at 12.969 ma for 2015, perhaps a surprise as this area would be slightly lower than last year while the average of analyst's expectations had suggested a slight boost in acres to 13.4 ma. Hard red spring wheat acres were estimated to fall to 12.1 ma, 100,000 acres below last year and 2.2% above the five-year average

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Durum was estimated at 1.65 ma, 17.9% above 2014 but below the 1.73 ma average of the pre-report estimates conducted by Dow Jones. This is below the five-year average of 1.74 ma.

The attached chart shows the percent change between the March Prospective Planting estimates and the final reported acreage. On average over the 2010-2014 period, the final estimate for planted acres of all-wheat was 1.6% below the estimate released in the March Prospective Planting report. In four of the five years of this period, the USDA overestimated the total wheat acreage in the March report.

Looking at four of the classes which help make up the all-wheat data, the most accurate estimates are seen in the hard red winter wheat class. Over the five years in question, the final estimate for HRW planted acres averaged just .1% below the March estimates, understandable given the time passed since fall planting.

The greatest variability between the March estimate of planted acres and the final reported planted acres seen in the chosen classes was seen in hard red spring wheat as well as durum. Over the five years looked at, the final estimate for spring wheat acres planted was lower than the March estimate in three of the five years, ranging from 14.7% below the March estimate in 2011 to 8% higher than the March estimate in 2014, as indicated by the purple line on the attached chart. The average over the five years suggests the final planted acres are 3.4% below the March estimate on average.

Even greater swings are seen with durum planted acres, the smallest of the four chosen classes for this study. Over the five years in question, actual planted acres of durum in the U.S. were lower than the March estimate in all but one year, ranging from 45.1% lower than the March estimate in 2011 to 12.6% higher than the March estimate in 2010. The average over the past five years suggests that government data also tends to overstate durum acres in the March report, with the final planted acres averaging 16% below the March estimate. Spring weather and competition from other crops in States such as North Dakota will have a large bearing on acreage swings such as seen on the attached chart for the spring-planted crops.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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Cliff Jamieson