Informa Boosts Argentina Corn
Expected Changes in Country's Ag Policies Seen Boosting Corn Acres
OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics increased its forecast for Argentina's corn production to 21 million metric tons, up 2.5 mmt, following the results of the country's presidential election.
"The newly elected president, which will assume office on Dec. 10, has promised to remove many of Argentina's restrictive agricultural policies," the report stated. "Only time will tell how quickly and to what degree the new administration will follow through on its promises to alter the country's agriculture policies and how quickly farmers will believe and act on the changes."
Informa's affiliate group in Argentina conducted a survey of farmers following the election that indicated farmers would plant 3.3 million hectares (8.15 million acres) of corn, up 400,000 hectares (about 988,000 acres) from last month's estimates. That's still smaller than the previous crop size, however.
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Brazil's corn crop is forecast at 81.3 mmt and the South Africa corn crop at 12 mmt. Both forecasts are 500,000 metric tons lower than last month.
"The estimate for Brazil is close to USDA's estimate of 81.5 mmt," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. "The estimate for Argentina is below USDA's estimate of 25.6 mmt, but don't count out USDA's estimate just yet as the new government in Argentina is expected to scrap the export tax for corn and wheat -- a move that is expected to result in more corn acres being planted this fall. South Africa's estimate shows a slight reduction due to dry weather."
On soybeans, Informa sees Brazilian farmers harvesting 101.4 mmt, up 400,000 mt from last month, and Argentine farmers 58.5 mmt, down 500,000 mt.
"Both are a little more than USDA's estimates of 100.0 mmt and 57.0 mmt respectively, but it is very early in the season to have any confidence about these guesses," Hultman said. "So far, the weather has been mostly favorable in Brazil and 81% of soybeans have been planted, behind last year's pace of 85%, reported DTN Correspondent Alastair Stewart on Nov. 27."
USDA will release its next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report at 11 a.m. CST on Wednesday, Dec. 9. It will not be releasing any new crop production estimate for corn, soybeans or wheat until the annual summary in January.
Katie Micik can be reached at Katie.Micik@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @KatieMDTN
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