Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dry conditions for harvest in the Midwest and variable rainfall trends in the global wheat scene are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

DRY WEEKEND IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for dry conditions across the Midwest during the first weekend of October. This pattern will favor continued harvest progress for corn and soybeans. Rainfall chances increase during the six- to 10-day time frame.

WEEKEND SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, light-to-moderate rain is in store through the weekend. This moisture will be beneficial for earlier-planted wheat, while causing some delays in row-crop harvest. The overall impact is favorable, however, following recent drier conditions. Additional rain is indicated for the region during the six- to 10-day time frame.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN CONDITIONS

Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies crop areas again have favorable harvest conditions through the weekend. Frost or freeze-level temperatures are possible, but offer no significant threat to crops at this time of year.

LIGHT CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Central Brazil continues to need additional rain to support widespread soybean planting. Significant rains remain mostly confined to south-central areas during the next week. The longer-range outlook is somewhat more uncertain as the forecast models have delayed the rain chance to the end of the 10-day period.

LIMITED RAIN PROSPECT IN RUSSIA

Dryness continues to affect germination and early development of winter grains in Ukraine and Russia, along with the completion of planting for at least another week. Beyond that time frame, there is some chance for needed moisture to occur; however, this is somewhat uncertain. There does appear to be a colder trend for the region during the 10-day time frame, especially in eastern areas. If this development occurs, this would further slow germination of any earlier planted grains.

DRYNESS THREAT TO AUSTRALIA WHEAT

A recent drying trend has increased the risk to reproductive and filling winter wheat in Australia. In addition, temperatures are turning hot. Thursday highs reached 91-97 degrees Fahrenheit (33-36 C) in the West Australia wheat areas. This hot pattern will shift through central areas and into the east during the weekend and may linger in the east early next week. Longer range, it appears that more seasonal temperatures would redevelop. However, shower chances remain fairly limited during the next week or more. Rain is needed to prevent significant declines to yield potential for this crop.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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