Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A mainly dry pattern and above- to well-above normal temperatures this week in the Midwest and Southern Plains, rain later this week for the Northern Plains, and mainly favorable conditions for the Canadian Prairies, are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for high temperatures and little rainfall in the Midwest to favor maturing crops during the outlook period while maintaining high stress on late-filling crops, especially in areas where crops have shallow roots and are already in less-than-ideal condition.

DRY, HOT WEEK FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, a turn to drier and hotter weather during the next five to seven days may be somewhat unfavorable for late-filling crops, but it will favor maturing crops and early harvesting. Dry, warm to hot weather will also diminish soil moisture for planting the next winter wheat crop. Longer-range charts are not as certain, as there is at least some chance for rains to develop in Kansas and Nebraska.

DELTA HEAT

In the Delta, drier, warmer to hotter weather will favor maturing crops and harvests at this time. Late-filling crops may come under some stress, but it is getting a little too late for this to have a significant impact.

RAIN LATER IN WEEK FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, no significant concerns for the spring wheat or oats harvest at this time. Wet weather later this week may be somewhat unfavorable for maturing crops while favoring late-filling crops.

BENEFICIAL WEATHER FOR PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, late-filling and maturing crops and the harvest will benefit from warm weather and only light showers during the week. Frost may become possible in the northwest later in the period, but this is not unusual for this date. At this time, it isn't expected to be a season-ending freeze.

MIXED OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE

Thunderstorms in Western Europe Monday contrasted with hot and dry weather in the east. Rain in the west helps recharge soil moisture for planting wheat and rapeseed crops, but it may also be somewhat unfavorable for maturing summer crops and early harvesting. Hot, dry weather in east Europe continues to deplete soil moisture in winter wheat and rapeseed areas and may stress late-filling summer crops, especially in the southeast.

RAINS IN CHINA

A recent increase in rain and showers through northeast and central China will favor late-filling corn and soybean crops, especially after mid-summer dry and hotter weather. Wet weather may be somewhat unfavorable for any early-maturing crops at this time. Rainfall over portions of the North China Plain helps replenish soil moisture for winter wheat.

HOT SPELL INTENSIFIES IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE

High temperatures reached 91 to 100 Fahrenheit (33 to 38 Celsius) Monday in western Ukraine and Moldova as a late-season hot spell intensifies. This heat and dryness should shift through central and east Ukraine and into southwest Russia during the coming days. This increases the risk to late-filling summer crops and early planted winter grains. The forecast suggests a chance for needed showers in western growing areas later in the five-to-seven-day period, while eastern areas remains drier.

DRY, HOT WEEK AHEAD IN INDIA

It appears likely, at this time, that west-central, northwest and north-central India and Pakistan will remain drier and hotter during the next seven to 10 days. This may signal an early withdrawal of the Monsoon from these locations. Crop areas of the northwest and north have received significant monsoon rains and should be in good shape. Crops grown in Gujarat and Maharashtra will see diminishing soil moisture and increasing stress to filling cotton and groundnut crops. The soybean belt has seen a few scattered showers since last week and it is good shape.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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