Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Drier and hotter conditions for this week in the Midwest and Southern Plains, and favorable weather for the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

DRY WEEK FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for rains over the western Midwest and the northwest portion of the eastern Midwest late last week to maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops. Drier and somewhat hotter weather during the next five to seven days will increase stress to filling crops, especially shallow-rooted crops in some south and southeast areas.

DRIER, HOTTER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, a turn to drier and hotter weather during the next five to seven days may be somewhat unfavorable for late-filling crops, but it will favor maturing crops and early harvesting. Dry, warm to hot weather will also diminish soil moisture for planting the next winter wheat crops. Longer-range charts are not as certain, as there is at least some chance for rains to develop in Kansas and Nebraska.

HOT, DRY IN DELTA

In the Delta, drier, warmer to hotter weather will favor maturing crops and harvests at this time. Late-filling crops may come under some stress, but it is getting a little too late for this to have a significant impact.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Northern Plains, no significant concerns for the spring wheat harvest at this time. Filling corn and soybeans will benefit from a turn to lower temperatures and a few showers later this week.

BENEFICIAL WEATHER FOR PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, late-filling and maturing crops and the harvest will benefit from warm weather and only light showers during the week. Frost may become possible in the northwest later in the period, but this is not unusual for this date. At this time, it isn't expected to be a season-ending freeze.

HEAT RETURNS TO EUROPE

The summer ridge has reformed over the Balkan states since the end of last week with widespread hot weather occurring. Hot, dry weather at this time would favor fall fieldwork, including harvesting of summer crops and planting of rapeseed and winter wheat. However, this also depletes soil moisture for early development of winter crops, especially through the southeast where it will last longer.

RAINS IN CHINA

A recent increase in rain and showers through northeast and central China will favor late-filling corn and soybean crops, especially after mid-summer dry and hotter weather. Wet weather may be somewhat unfavorable for any early-maturing crops at this time. Rainfall over portions of the North China Plain helps replenish soil moisture for winter wheat.

DRYNESS REMAINS IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE

Drier weather and warm to hot weather in Ukraine and south Russia will favor maturing corn and sunflower and any harvesting, as well as fieldwork in preparation for planting winter grains. Dryness may be unfavorable for late-filling summer crops. Dryness is also a growing concern for germination and early development of the next winter grains crops, especially over west and south Russia, but possibly over Ukraine as well. The longer-range charts today show some promise of needed moisture for at least some of this region later this week or early next week.

DRY, HOT WEEK AHEAD IN INDIA

It appears likely, at this time, that west-central, northwest and north-central India and Pakistan will remain drier and hotter during the next seven to 10 days. This may signal an early withdrawal of the Monsoon from these locations. Crop areas of the northwest and north have received significant monsoon rains and should be in good shape. Crops grown in Gujarat and Maharashtra will see diminishing soil moisture and increasing stress to filling cotton and groundnut crops. The soybean belt has seen a few scattered showers since last week and it is good shape.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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