Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Widely variable rainfall in the Midwest, and a promising rainfall forecast for wheat areas in West Australia are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to heavy rain in the western Midwest during the short-range period to maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops. Drier and warmer conditions later will allow fields to dry out. In contrast, drier conditions in the east and south areas and then a turn to warm weather are unfavorable for shallow-rooted crops.

DRY AND WARM IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains areas remain in line for drier and hotter conditions during the next 10 days. This combination may be somewhat unfavorable for late-filling crops, but it will favor maturing crops and any early harvesting. Dry and warm conditions will also diminish soil moisture for planting the next winter wheat crop.

FAVORABLE DELTA PATTERN

In the Delta, drier conditions with very warm to hot weather will favor maturing crops and harvest progress.

BENEFICIAL NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Northern Plains, there are no significant concerns for the spring wheat harvest at this time. Corn and soybeans continue in mostly good to excellent condition at this time.

IMPROVING PRAIRIES HARVEST

In the Canadian Prairies, drier and warm conditions in the next week will improve prospects for maturing crops and harvest.

NEW SOUTHERN EUROPE HOT SPELL

A new round of hot and dry conditions is developing over Italy, the Balkan states and east-central Europe. This will bring a late-season episode of crop stress following an already-hot pattern during the first half of the summer.

TROPICAL SYSTEM RAINS IN CHINA

Rain from a weakening tropical cyclone is indicated for northeastern China through the weekend. This should mean increasing showers for eastern and northern growing areas. This includes some key soybean and corn areas.

CONTINUED DRY TREND IN UKRAINE

Dry and very warm conditions remain in place over Ukraine through most of Russia. This favors maturing corn and sunflower crops along with winter wheat planting. The dryness bears watching for possible soil moisture issues with the new wheat crop.

EASTERN INDIA RAINS

Across India, scattered rains continue in northeast and east-central areas. This favors such crops as rice. It appears likely that the northwest to west-central India area and Pakistan will remain drier and hotter during the next 10 days. This may signal an early withdrawal of the monsoon from these locations.

GOOD RAIN CHANCE IN AUSTRALIA

In West Australia, forecasts for September call for a high chance for above-normal rainfall. This is a favorable forecast for wheat production. Most of the West Australia wheat crop is sold into the export market.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES)

Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.