DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge to the north to Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Iceland and southern Greenland. This is a mild pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the interior western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. and the western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure dominates the southern and eastern Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This will be a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. Any significant storminess during the period will be along or off the east coast in association with the eastern U.S. trough although some significant precipitation could extend back into the Delta states early next week. Some episodes of cold weather are expected in the central U.S. when both branches of the jet come into phase.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...91 AT RIVERSIDE CA AND WOODLAND HILLS CA AND FILLMORE CA LOW THU...35 BELOW ZERO AT COTTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...CLEVELAND OH 0.20 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement early in the outlook period, only fair agreement late in the period. I am using a little more of today's US model as it concerns the end of the period.

Today's European model shows a somewhat deeper trough developing over the northern plains before moving into the western Midwest during the 8-10 day period. On the mean map this is depicted by a weak trough over the western areas of the central plains region. However, on the day by day breakdown this trough is somewhat deeper and centered over the northwest Midwest at day ten.

If real this would likely mean an increased chance for precipitation from the east plains through the west and central Midwest. The US model shows is somewhat fastern and weaker with this feature. The US model is preferred as it concerns this trough. This keeps the precipitation at near to below normal levels through the central and southern plains, the wes and central Midwest regions.

The mean maps continue to feature above normal heights over a significant portion of both the US and Canada. The polar vortex is shown over the far north Canada area and over Greenland. This suggests an above normal temperature pattern for most of the area from southern Canada southward through the US. The eastern trough is shown over the Canadian Maritimes and east of New England.

This is close enough to maintain somewhat cooler conditions over the northeast US at times.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): Episodes of mostly light snow may mean minor delays to transport, at times, during the next 5 days. Very cold temperatures Friday and Saturday nights but probably not cold enough to harm wheat in the east and south Midwest or the north Delta. Not so cold later in the period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Mainly above normal temperatures and dry conditions will favor livestock in the region during the next ten days.

Drier weather in wheat areas for at least another 7 to 10 days. Soil moisture remains adequate for current needs but will be diminishing.

ARGENTINA (Corn/Soybeans/Sunflower): Periodic rain chances and brief hot spells favors corn, soybean and sunflower at this time.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Periodic shower and thundershower activity will maintain adequate soil moisture for soybeans and corn from RGDS to Parana. A somewhat drier, hotter trend on Mato Grosso bears watching as it concerns second crop corn but there appears to be enough shower activity to maintain current yield prospects for this crop.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Temperatures at near to mostly above normal and periodic light to locally moderate precipitation will favor winter grains in the region. However, this pattern will also lead to diminished snow cover. Snow cover is needed to protect the winter grains from potential winter kill in the event the weather turns colder.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): The weather pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, near to below normal rainfall.

However, a few showers and afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible at times. Reproductive and filling crops could use more rain, especially in the western and northern growing belt.

CHINA (Winter Wheat/Rapeseed): Rain will move through southern and eastern wheat areas and rapeseed areas at the end of this week and early in the weekend. Light precipitation through northwest wheat areas during this time.

Colder temperatures follow behind this system and remain in place after that.

However, it does not look cold enough to harm winter wheat or rapeseed.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Light snow or snow showers occurred yesterday or last night, favoring western and southern locations. Temperatures averaged below normal, well below normal northeast areas.

EAST: Mostly dry yesterday. A little light snow or snow showers moved through central and southern Illinois and southern Indiana overnight. Temperatures averaged below normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today and most of Saturday. Light to moderate snow Saturday night into Sunday will favor north and east areas with up to 0.25 inch melted expected. Temperatures average below to well below normal today, well below normal Saturday, below normal early Sunday, near to above normal later Sunday.

The lowest temperatures will range mostly between +2 and -12F... warmest over eastern Nebraska and northern Missouri.

Mostly dry Monday. Chance for a little light precipitation Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east Monday and Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

EAST: Chance for a little light snow south and snow showers northeast today.

Mostly dry Saturday. Light to locally moderate precipitation during Sunday.

Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period. The coldest low temperatures will likely be below zero F in northwest Illinois, southern Wisconsin and in Michigan and near or slightly above zero elsewhere in the region.

Chance for snow or freezing rain along or just south of the Ohio river during Monday. Chance for a little light precipitation during Tuesday. Drier Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Precipitation should average near to below normal through west through the west, near to above normal through the east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows. The afternoon highs were above normal through west and south areas, below normal through northeast locations.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring southeast areas, during Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east today and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation through southeast areas Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal, well above normal through western and southern locations.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal, although there is a slight chance for near to above normal rainfall in southeast to south-central areas.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Dry or with only isolated thundershowers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged above normal. The high temperatures yesterday reached 93-97F (34-36C) over Mato Grosso and northern MGDS.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers will mainly occur in MGDS and Goias today and Saturday. Scattered to widely scattered showers may move to include Mato Gross during Sunday. Temperatures average above normal through Mato Grosso, northern MGDS and western Goias...near to above normal otherwise.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Monday and Tuesday.

Drier west with lingering showers east Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Isolated thundershowers in extreme west RGDS during the past 24 hours.

Isolated to widely scattered showers in Parana. Drier elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few afternoon thundershowers in northeast areas today. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Summary: Isolated to widely scattered showers occurred mostly in La Pampa, south and a little of central Buenos Aires during the past 24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. Highs yesterday mostly 86 to 93F (30-34C), warmest over Cordoba and Santa Fe.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers will cover most of the region today or during tonight. Additional scattered showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend in Cordoba and Santa Fe. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal during the weekend.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers are expected to be in the region during Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period but with a tendency towards above normal north and near or slightly below normal south.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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