DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge to the north to Alaska. A ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Iceland and southern Greenland. This is a mild pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure dominates the southern and eastern Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This will be a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A flat ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. Any significant storminess during the period will be along or off the east coast in association with the eastern U.S. trough although some significant precipitation could extend back into the Delta states early next week. Some episodes of cold weather are expected in the central U.S. when both branches of the jet come into phase.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...91 AT SAN DIEGO, MIRAMAR, LAKE FOREST, YORBA LINDA, SAN GABRIEL, OJAI AND VENTURA...All in California.

LOW WED...30 BELOW ZERO AT COTTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...ERIE PA 0.63 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first 1-2 days of the period, fair to good agreement after that. I am using a little more of today's US model for the 6-10 day period.

Today's US model now features a deeper low moving across the northern plains and the upper Midwest next Thursday while the European model shows a deep low over Maine and Nova Scotia Canada Thursday. The northern plains system, if real, would likely mean more wind than precipitation for the area and is not too much of a concern. The deep low over Maine, if real, suggests another powerful northeast or ocean storm and is mostly a concern in the northeast US and east Canada.

Today's mean maps at 8-10 days are fairly similar. We note above normal heights over the southern and central US which likely means above normal temperatures and little rainfall, possibly well above normal temperatures. We still see the an upper level ridge and above normal heights over the Atlantic, a moderate to somewhat strong polar vortex centered north of Hudson Bay Canada and a somewhat deep trough in the Pacific from the western Gulf of Alaska and western Alaska westward. There is a suggestion of weak troughs over the northeast US and west Atlantic and over or just west of California. There is also the suggestion of a subtropical ridge over south and central Mexico.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): Episodes of mostly light snow may mean minor delays to transport, at times, during the next 5 days. Very cold temperatures Friday and Saturday nights but probably not cold enough to harm wheat in the east and south Midwest or the north Delta. Not so cold later in the period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Yesterday's very warm temperatures would probably be a concern if it were to continue. However, it should be cooler during the next 5 days. Precipitation chances remain fairly limited during the next 10 days. Soil moisture is adequate for current needs of wheat, however soil moisture will be diminishing. More rain will be needed come spring.

ARGENTINA (Corn/Soybeans/Sunflower): Periodic rain chances and brief hot spells mostly favors corn, soybean and sunflower at this time.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Periodic shower and thundershower activity will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for soybeans and corn from RGDS to Parana. A warmer, drier trend north of Parana will favor maturing crops and harvesting.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Temperatures at near to mostly above normal and periodic light to locally moderate precipitation will favor winter grains in the region. However, this pattern will also lead to diminished snow cover in the region. Snow cover is needed to protect the winter grains from potential winter kill in the event the weather turns colder.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): The weather pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, near to below normal rainfall.

However, a few showers and afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible at times. Reproductive and filling crops could use more rain, especially in the western growing belt.

CHINA (Winter Wheat): Warmer temperatures early this week will give way to somewhat colder weather during the weekend or early next week. Rain is expected through south and east wheat areas during the next 2-3 days. This will provide favorable moisture for wheat. Snow with this system should be limited.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Light snow occurred mainly through western and southern areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal in western areas, below normal central and east.

EAST: Light snow occurred in southwest areas during the past 24 hours. Snow showers and squalls occurred in the northeast and far east areas. Little otherwise. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast...

WEST: A little light snow or snow showers may redevelop today into tonight.

Mainly dry Friday and early Saturday. Light to locally moderate snow is possible later Saturday or Saturday night, favoring northern and eastern areas.

Temperatures average well below normal. The lows Saturday morning are expected to range from near zero in northern Missouri to near minus 10 F in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota.

Light snow favoring central and east areas Sunday. Mainly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east Sunday, above normal west and near normal east Monday and Tuesday.

EAST: Mostly dry or with only a little light snow through southwest areas today and tonight. Snow showers or squalls northeast and far east areas during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

Chance for light to locally moderate snow Sunday into Sunday night. Dry or with only snow showers Monday. Chance for light to locally moderate snow or snow showers late Tuesday or Tuesday night, favoring northern areas.

Temperatures average well below normal Sunday, below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly above normal. Precipitation should average near to below normal through west and central areas, near to above normal through the east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday. High temperatures reached 80F as far north as southern most Kansas, 79-83F in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Normal highs: 52-55F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal west and below normal east tomorrow, below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation in eastern areas Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday and Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Dry or with only a few afternoon showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: A few showers and thundershowers will favor southern areas today, eastern areas tomorrow. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

Dry or with only a few light showers Sunday. Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Monday or Tuesday, possibly favoring east and north areas. Temperatures mostly above normal early in this period, near to above normal later.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers were indicated in Parana during the past 24 hours. A few of these may have been locally heavy. Mostly dry in RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few thundershowers in Parana today. Mostly dry Friday and early Saturday. Thundershowers may develop in RGDS late Saturday or more likely Saturday night. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favor Parana Monday and possibly Tuesday as well.

Temperatures trend towards normal or slightly below normal during this period.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Summary: Scattered thunderstorms have moved over La Pampa during the night.

Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Highs mostly 88-93F (32-34C), warmest over eastern Cordoba and Santa Fe.

However in southeast Buenos Aires highs were somewhat cooler.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers will mainly occur through southern areas today and tonight. Scattered showers and thundershowers move through central and north areas Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today but should turn cooler tomorrow and Saturday. High temperatures average 91 to 99F (33-37C) from northern Buenos Aires northward today and Friday before cooler weather moves in Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, warmer again Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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