DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge to the north to Alaska. A ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Iceland. This is a mild pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure dominates the southern and eastern Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This will be a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A flat ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. Any significant storminess during the period will be along or off the east coast in association with the eastern U.S. trough. Some episodes of cold weather are expected in the central U.S. when both branches of the jet come into phase.

This pattern will feature below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 4-5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10 Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...95 AT SANTA ANA CA

LOW TUE...9 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...HARRISBURG PA 0.54 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the western and southern plains, the Delta and the southeast during the 6-10 day period...only fair agreement as it concerns the northeast Plains, the Midwest and the northeast U.S. I favor the US model today for the 6-10 day period. The European model appears to have too much trough and surface low pressure over the northeast plains and the western Midwest during the middle of the outlook period.

The mean maps at 8-10 days are fairly similar, despite the day to day differences. We note a strong eastern Atlantic ridge that noses back towards the northwest Atlantic and the Canadian Maritimes and just east of New England.

We see a broad, flat ridge over the south-central U.S. region. The troughs are over north to northeast Canada and Greenland and from the Gulf of Alaska westward over the northern Pacific. We also note weak troughs off the southeast U.S. coast and over or near Baja California. There is a strong west to east flow over the central and southern US on these maps and there is little, if any, high latitude blocking.

A strong west to east flow over the U.S. should limit the chances for significant precipitation outside of the areas west of the Rockies and east of the Appalachian mountain ranges. The lack of high latitude blocking and the far north position of the polar vortex should limit the southward push of any cold weather still around in Canada during the 8-10 day period. The Atlantic ridge blocks forward progress of any east coast systems which leaves the door open to strong storms near or just east of the Atlantic coastline.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): No significant concerns for transport and travel during the next 7 days or longer. Colder early in this period but not cold enough to harm winter wheat. Not so cold later in the period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Temperature at near to above normal will favor wheat and livestock during the next 7-10 days. Precipitation chances remain fairly limited during this period. Soil moisture is adequate for current needs of wheat. More rain will be needed come spring.

ARGENTINA (Corn/Soybeans/Sunflower): Moderate to very heavy rain that occurred during the weekend will maintain and improve soil moisture in most crop areas and is favorable...except in local areas that may see flooding due to the heaviest of the weekend rainfall. Another scattered rain event appears to set up for the end of this week.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Periodic shower and thundershower activity will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for soybeans and corn from RGDS to Parana. A few scattered showers north of Parana will favor late filling crops but may be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvesting.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Temperatures at near to mostly above normal and periodic light to locally moderate precipitation will favor winter grains in the region. However, this pattern will also lead to diminished snow cover in the region. Snow cover is needed to protect the winter grains from potential winter kill in the event the weather turns colder.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): The weather pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, near to below normal rainfall.

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However, a few showers and afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible at times. Reproductive and filling crops could use a little more rain, especially in the western growing belt.

CHINA (Winter Wheat): Warmer temperatures early this week will give way to somewhat colder weather towards the end of the week or early next week.

Precipitation may increase somewhat over southern and east-central areas. No significant concerns for winter wheat or rapeseed at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry yesterday. Light snow has developed in the northwest overnight. Temperatures averaged below normal.

EAST: Snow showers occurred through northeast and far east areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Light snow favoring west and south areas today. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

Light precipitation during Saturday into early Sunday may favor north and east areas. Drier later Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures average well below normal Saturday, warmer Sunday and Monday.

EAST: Snow showers or light snow favoring northeast areas today into tonight.

Drier Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures average below or well below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered light precipitation during Sunday may linger in southeast areas into Monday. Temperatures average well below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal through western and far south areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal tomorrow, above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Light precipitation, favoring southeast areas, during Sunday. Drier Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sun day, above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-0.75 inch (6-19 mm) and locally heavier, favoring Mato Grosso, southwest MGDS and portions of Goias.

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged mostly near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers will favor western and southern areas today, southern and eastern areas tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Scattered showers and thundershowers may favor Goias Saturday, Goias and Mato Grosso Sunday and Monday. Somewhat less for MGDS during this period.

Temperatures average near to above normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: A few thunderstorms in western most RGDS, extreme southwest and extreme southeast Parana produced locally heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours. Otherwise it appears that only scattered light showers with isolated heavier were reported. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers will tend to favor Parana today and tonight. Dry or with only lingering showers through northern Parana Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures average mostly near normal today, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Hot Saturday with a few thundershowers developing late in the day or at night and favoring RGDS and possibly northwest Parana. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers may favor Parana during Sunday. Drier again Monday.

Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower, Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow and Friday. The heaviest of this activity looks to occur over Cordoba and northern Santa Fe, although locally heavy thundershowers may also occur in southeast and central Buenos Aires. Temperatures average above normal today and Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday.

A few showers and thundershowers may linger over the northern areas during Saturday. Drier Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal early in this period, near to above normal later in the period.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio