DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge to the north to Alaska. A ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure dominates the southern and eastern Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This will be a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. Any significant storminess during the period will be along or off the east coast in association with the eastern U.S. trough. Some episodes of cold weather are expected in the central U.S. when both branches of the jet come into phase.

This pattern will feature below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation mostly normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10 Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...92 AT LAKE FOREST CA

LOW MON...11 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...CLEVELAND OH 0.53 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although there are still some differences on the details. The differences have little impact on the weather forecast for the key central U.S. crop and livestock areas. I am using a blend between the models today.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days feature a strong ridge in the Atlantic centered a little east of the central Atlantic. We note a strong trough in Canada centered over and just northeast of Hudson Bay. There is a mean, flat ridge over the southern Rockies extending across the southern plains on these maps. There is a mean trough over the eastern U.S., tilting from the Great Lakes region to just off the southeast U.S. coastline. There is little, if any, high latitude blocking on these maps.

The lack of high latitude blocking and the position of the polar vortex over the north part of Canada likely means the southward push to any very cold weather in Canada will be limited during the extended range period. The mean trough in the eastern US does support near to below normal temperatures from the eastern Midwest east through the east coast states. The mean ridge over the southern Rockies and the southern plains favors above normal temperatures and also below normal rainfall. This also appears to be a drier than normal period for the Midwest and Delta areas. However, there should be a warm front dividing the west and south plains warmth from the east Midwest and east coast cool weather. This warm front may lead to some chance of near to above normal precipitation. I put this near to above normal precipitation chance over the northern Midwest region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): No significant concerns for transport and travel during the next 7 days or longer. Colder early in this period but not cold enough to harm winter wheat. Not so cold later in the period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): Temperature at near to above normal will favor wheat and livestock during the next 7-10 days. Precipitation chances remain fairly limited during this period. Soil moisture is adequate for current needs of wheat. More rain will be needed come spring.

ARGENTINA (Corn/Soybeans/Sunflower): Moderate to very heavy rain that occurred during the weekend will maintain and improve soil moisture in most crop areas and is favorable...except in local areas that may see flooding due to the heaviest of the weekend rainfall. Another rain event appears to set up for the end of this week.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Periodic shower and thundershower activity will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for soybeans and corn from RGDS to Parana. A few scattered showers north of Parana will favor late filling crops but may be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvesting.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Temperatures at near to mostly above normal and periodic light to locally moderate precipitation will favor winter grains in the region. However, this pattern will also lead to diminished snow cover in the region. Snow cover is needed to protect the winter grains from potential winter kill in the event the weather turns colder.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): The weather pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, near to below normal rainfall.

However, a few showers and afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible at times. Reproductive and filling crops could use a little more rain, especially in the western growing belt.

CHINA (Winter Wheat): Warmer temperatures early this week will give way to somewhat colder weather towards the end of the week or early next week.

Precipitation may increase somewhat over southern and east-central areas. No significant concerns for winter wheat or rapeseed at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Strong winds, light snow and blowing snow during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

EAST: Light to moderate precipitation east, light precipitation west, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday morning, below normal west and above normal east during the afternoon.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today. Chance for a little light precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

Mostly dry Friday. Chance for light to locally moderate precipitation, favoring eastern areas, during the weekend. Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

EAST: Snow showers favoring central and east areas today. Mainly dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers Wednesday. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers Friday and Saturday.

Light to locally moderate precipitation during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Precipitation should average near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal north-central to northeast areas.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry and somewhat windy during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average above normal today, well above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring the east, during Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal Friday, near to above normal west and below normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered light to moderate showers east, a few light showers west, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal west, near to below normal east.

Forecast: Daily chance for a few afternoon or evening thundershowers during the next 5 days. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Dry or with only isolated light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers today.

Scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow and during Thursday may tend to favor Parana and western Santa Catarina. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Dry or with only a few light showers during Friday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday and Sunday may tend to favor RGDS and Santa Catarina. Temperatures average above normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower, Wheat)

Summary: Scattered light showers lingered in north and east-central areas yesterday, except heavier thundershowers lingered in far northeast locations.

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few afternoon thundershowers favoring northwest areas today. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring southern and western areas during Thursday.

Temperatures average near to above normal west and near to below normal east today, above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring central and northeast areas during Friday. Drier again during the weekend. Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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