DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge to the north to Alaska. A ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central U.S. and a trough along and off the east coast of the U.S. Subtropical high pressure dominates the Caribbean and southern Mexico.,

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair-poor agreement days 6-10. We are leaning more towards the European model today. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This will be a mild pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. Any significant storminess during the period will be along or off the east coast in association with the eastern U.S. trough. Some episodes of cold weather are expected in the central U.S. when both branches of the jet come into phase. However no persistent or extreme cold is forecast.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT FULLERTON CA

LOW SUN...17 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...CHARLESTON SC 0.87 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, with the following exceptions...The European model features a stronger upper level trough over the northeast US and a tendency for more stormy weather near and just off the northeast US coastline during the outlook period. The US model features somewhat more trough over the southwest US late in the outlook period which would suggest a chance for precipitation reaching the southern plains wheat areas at the end of the period. I would favor a compromise between the models as it concerns the east coast/northeast US activity and I would favor a little more of today's European model as it concerns the potential for activity in the southern plains.

The 8-10 day maps today feature somewhat less high latitude blocking. As a result the east Canada trough weakens with time and the jet stream over the US lifts northward. This should allow for warmer temperatures over the west and central areas of the US with a more gradually warming trend over the eastern US. Precipitation chances remain limited between the Rockies and the Appalachian Mountains but may be somewhat more near the east coast and possibly in the Pacific Northwest as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): No significant concerns for transport and travel during the next 7 days or longer. Colder at times but probably not cold enough to harm winter wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): A more moderate temperature pattern will favor wheat and livestock during the next 7-10 days. Cold weather coming southward out of Canada is mostly headed into the north and east Midwest and the northeast US regions.

ARGENTINA (Corn/Soybeans/Sunflower): Moderate to very heavy rain will maintain and improve soil moisture in most crop areas and is favorable...except in local areas that may see flooding due to the heaviest of the weekend rainfall.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Periodic shower and thundershower activity will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for soybeans and corn from RGDS to southern Parana. A few scattered showers from northern Parana northward will favor late filling crops but may be unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvesting.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): A variable temperature pattern is in place at this time. However, damaging cold weather is not expected. This will favor overwintering grains. Soil moisture this spring is expected to be adequate to surplus due to winter time precipitation, snow and sometimes rain.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): The weather pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, near to below normal rainfall.

However, a few showers and afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible at times. Reproductive and filling crops could use a little more rain, especially in the western growing belt.

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CHINA (Winter Wheat): Warmer temperatures early this week will give way to somewhat colder weather towards the end of the week or early next week.

Precipitation may increase somewhat over southern and east-central areas. No significant concerns for winter wheat or rapeseed at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Dry or with only a little light precipitation during the weekend period.

Temperatures averaged above normal.

EAST: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. A little light precipitation developed yesterday or last night. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Chance for a little light snow or snow showers today. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal today, below to well below normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

Chance for a little light snow or snow showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

EAST: Chance for light snow or snow showers, favoring eastern areas, today.

Chance for a few snow showers northeast, fair elsewhere in the region, Tuesday.

Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal this morning, near to below normal this afternoon, below normal Tuesday, below or well below normal Wednesday.

Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal early in the period, near to above normal late in the period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Dry or with only a little light precipitation during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday. It may turn somewhat colder again Friday and Saturday.. especially in eastern areas.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered light to locally moderate showers with isolated heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Daily chance for a few afternoon or evening thundershowers during the next 5 days. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Dry or with only isolated shower activity during the weekend period.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for scattered showers developing in the south and spreading north tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near normal south and above normal north Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

Scattered showers north, fair south, Thursday. Mainly dry Friday. Scattered showers may redevelop in RGDS during Saturday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower, Wheat)

Summary: Moderate to heavy thunderstorms favored southern and western areas early in the weekend period. Heavy thunderstorms moved to cover the balance of the region during the last 24 hours of the period. Rainfall is estimated at

0.75 to 2.50 inches (20-65 mm) and locally heavier. A few areas may have seen very heavy rains and severe thunderstorms during this time. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Saturday. Southern areas were cooler Sunday while northern areas remained fairly hot Sunday.

Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms linger today, favoring north, central and southeast areas. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures turn cooler today and Tuesday, warmer again during Wednesday.

Chance for scattered light showers Thursday. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers Friday into Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, somewhat cooler Friday and Saturday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio