DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge to the north to Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada. This is a mild pattern in far western and eastern Canada, cool/cold central and interior east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A weak trough in the Plains. A trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure dominates southern Mexico, the western Caribbean and the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 day, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a blocking ridge to the north of Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and some weak ridging over Greenland. This will be a colder pattern for much of Canada except the far west with some of this cold air moving southward into the central U.S. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Any significant storminess during the period will shift to along or off the east coast. Some episodes of cold weather are expected in the central U.S. next week when both branches of the jet come into phase. However no persistent or extreme cold is forecast.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...85 AT VERO BEACH FL

LOW THU...26 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON and LAKE GEORGE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...JACKSONVILLE and TALLAHASSEE FL 2.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement early in the 6-10 day period, fair agreement late in the period. I favor a little more of today's European model.

The mean maps at 8-10 days both feature a moderate to strong upper level trough over eastern Canada that dips down into the Great Lakes region and the northeast U.S. The US model is somewhat stronger with this trough and a little further to the south with the strong jet stream on the bottom of this trough.

This likely means a trend towards below normal temperatures for central and east Canada and the north and east Midwest and the northeast U.S. It also likely means near to mostly below normal precipitation chances.

While the mean maps at 8 to 10 days are not very difference there are some differences in the day by day breakdown worth noting. The US model shows a strong surface high implying colder temperatures moving across the northern Midwest next Friday and Saturday. The European model shows a short wave upper level trough rotating around the parent east Canada trough dropping down over Ontario Canada at the end of the period. This may suggest somewhat colder weather into the plains and western Midwest at the end of the period. The European model also shows a surface low forming over the southern plains and tracking through the southern and eastern Midwest at the end of the period.

This would suggest some chance for precipitation.

These end of the period differences are interesting but probably not strong enough to warrant a change in the overall forecast for the 6-10 day period. At least not until there is better agreement between the models.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): No significant concerns for transport and travel during the next 7 days or longer. Colder at times but probably not cold enough to harm winter wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): A more moderate temperature pattern will favor wheat and livestock during the next 7-10 days. Cold weather coming southward out of Canada is mostly headed into the north and east Midwest and the northeast US regions.

ARGENTINA (Corn/Soybeans/Sunflower): Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms today into Monday. Rainfall may become locally quite heavy. Rain will maintain and improve soil moisture in most crop areas and is favorable...except it local areas that may see flooding if the thunderstorms become too heavy.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Periodic shower and thundershower activity will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for soybeans and corn from RGDS to southern Parana. A few scattered showers from northern Parana northward will favor late filling crops but may be unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvesting.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): A variable temperature pattern is in place at this time. However, damaging cold weather is not expected. This will favor overwintering grains. Soil moisture this spring is expected to be adequate to surplus due to winter time precipitation, snow and sometimes rain.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): Scattered showers yesterday mainly occurred in eastern growing areas. The weather pattern suggests near to above normal temperatures in the west and near to below normal east during the next 7 days, near to below normal rainfall. However, a few showers and afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible at times. Reproductive and filling crops could use a little more rain, especially in the western growing belt.

CHINA (Winter Wheat): Colder temperatures continue for a few more days, especially in north and east areas. No significant damage should result from this cold weather. A warmer trend is expected during the early and middle part of next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal south, below normal north.

EAST: Light snow or snow showers northeast locations, dry elsewhere in the region, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a little light precipitation during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation Monday. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

EAST: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a little light precipitation developing later Sunday or during Sunday night. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Light snow or snow showers favoring central and east areas Monday and Monday night. Drier Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers, favoring northwest and far west areas, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: A few snow showers and a little light snow today. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average within a few degrees either side of normal.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday but it should turn warmer Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: A few showers and thundershowers were mostly in MGDS, west and northeast Mato Grosso during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Chance for a few showers and thundershowers each day today through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Monday. Scattered showers and thundershowers may occur during Tuesday into Wednesday, favoring east and south areas. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers were indicated in northern Parana during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only isolated showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers in east and north Parana today and Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures turn somewhat hotter during this period.

Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Scattered showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower, Wheat)

Summary: Scattered light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers were indicated in southwest and far west areas yesterday or mostly last night.

Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Highs yesterday were mostly 88 to 93F (31-34C0.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers today and Saturday will mainly occur in southern Buenos Aires, La Pampa, south and west Cordoba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move to include eastern Cordoba, northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe during Sunday. Rainfall potential appears to be moderate to heavy. Temperatures average above normal today and Saturday, somewhat cooler during Sunday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers move through northern areas during Monday, drier elsewhere in the region Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures average below normal Monday but it should turn warmer again Tuesday and Wednesday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.