DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak blocking ridge over eastern Alaska extending back into northeast Siberia. A ridge over western Canada and a trough over north-central and eastern Canada extending into western Greenland. This is a mild/cool pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge over the western U.S. A strong trough over the Plains and Midwest and a weak ridge along the east coast. Subtropical high pressure centered over the west-central coast of Mexico dominates the Gulf of Mexico and most of Mexico except the northwest.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days. Fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest and north-central Canada and a trough over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for much of southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the south-central U.S. and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. Most of the precipitation with this pattern will be under the trough in the south-central U.S. which could include parts of the southern and eastern Midwest but may be more over the eastern U.S. Temperatures will be on the mild side due to a lack of cold air in Canada.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal northwest, near to below normal south and east.The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal. The northern plains will see mostly above normal temperatures. Precipitation mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...85 AT PUNTA GORDA FL AND FORT MYERS FL LOW MON...15 BELOW ZERO AT BOULDER WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...KNOXVILLE TN 1.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the 6-10 day period. The northern branch of the jet stream features a mean trough over much of Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska and a flat ridge over southeast Canada and the northeast US. Heights are indicated at above normal through much of east and a portion of central Canada and the northeast US. A west to east flow from the bottom of the trough to the top of the ridge means that temperatures likely average above normal through southern Canada and the north and central areas of the US. There is little, if any, significant moisture indicated within the northern branch of the jet stream during this period. The southern branch of the jet stream features weak troughs over the southern plains and over the lower Miss and lower Ohio river valleys. A strong ridge is indicated from southwest California into the Pacific. Moisture associated with the southern troughs looks to be on the light side during the outlook period but this may change as we move beyond the 10 day period. Rainfall chances during the 6-10 day period appear to be highest from the southeast plains to the lower Miss river valley but even here the rainfall looks to be below normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA (Hogs/Wheat): Snow, moderate to heavy, yesterday and overnight last night will likely impact transport today through northwest and north-central areas of the Midwest. Recent heavy rains from the southeast Midwest to the Delta will maintain adequate to surplus moisture in the Soft Red Winter Wheat areas while warmer than normal temperatures will mostly favor this crop.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Livestock): A drier period with warmer temperatures will favor livestock in the feed lots of the southwest. Warm temperatures and recent moisture favor the winter wheat crop.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Episodes of rain and showers will favor development of corn and soybeans from RGDS northward to MGDS. Some delay to planting is possible. Episodes of scattered to widely showers and thundershowers help improve conditions for soybeans in Mato Grosso as well during this period.

However, in this area it may be hot at times which could stress early developing soybeans.

ARGENTINA (Wheat/Corn/Soybeans): A drier, warmer to hotter trend is expected during the next 7 days. Soil moisture and temperatures will favor developing crops during this period while soils slowly dry out. Mostly favorable weather for planting during this period.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Episodes of precipitation, snow and rain, during the fall season with more snow due during the next few days. This moisture helps to ease drought conditions somewhat. The increase in moisture and earlier warm temperatures is reported to have favored winter grains in the South Russia region. However, elsewhere in the region the crop is still suffering the effects of the summer drought. Winter grains are likely poorly established in many areas with uneven germination and emergence. This crop will be more vulnerable to winter crop threats unless snow cover protects the crop or the winter features mild and showery weather conditions.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): Scattered showers and thundershowers were reported in many key maize and sugarcane growing areas early last week or late in the prior week. This likely encouraged increased planting activity for maize and should favor development of sugarcane. Hot temperatures redeveloped at the end of the week but it cooled off again during the weekend. Episodes of hot temperatures with limited rain chances threatens these crops during this season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Snow and rain, 0.25-0.75 inch melted, during the past 24 hours. Moderate to heavy snow, 6-12 inches and locally heavier, was indicated through northwest areas with somewhat lesser amounts into northeast Nebraska and into southeast Minnesota. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday morning, near normal during the afternoon.

EAST: Rain, 0.25-0.75 inch, from the Ohio river valley southward into Kentucky overnight. Rain, 0.25-0.50 inch and locally heavier, from central and northern Illinois into Wisconsin during this time. Only a little light rain or drizzle elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday morning, near to above normal during the afternoon.

Forecast...

WEST: Chance for snow or snow showers and a few squalls favoring northwest and north areas today into tonight. Mainly dry during Wednesday. Dry Thursday.

Temperatures average near to above normal through Thursday morning, above normal Thursday afternoon.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

EAST: Light rain or drizzle may linger in southeast and north areas early today, drier later today. Chance for snow or rain showers favoring northern and northeast areas during Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mostly dry Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal today and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal, warmest in western areas.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Scattered showers, 0.10-0.35 inch, through southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas during the past 24 hours. Very light precipitation, 0.20 inch or less, through southern Nebraska and northern Kansas during this time. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average below normal today, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring southern areas, during Saturday night or during Sunday. Temperatures average above to near normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Isolated to widely scattered thundershowers were reported in the region during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal west and south, above normal northeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through Mato Grosso, northern MGDS and western Goias today through Thursday. Temperatures average above normal. Chance for scattered showers at times in southern MGDS and eastern Goias during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Scattered showers and thundershowers through MGDS during Friday and Saturday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers through Mato Grosso and Goias during Saturday or Sunday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period, especially through MGDS.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms occurred in north and west Parana yesterday or last night. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers will tend to favor Parana and Santa Catarina today and Wednesday but should also include RGDS later Wednesday or during Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Scattered showers and thundershowers during Friday. Showers linger in Parana during Saturday. Drier Sunday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period, possibly much cooler in southern areas.

Argentina (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near normal in northern areas, above normal in the south.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in the southwest today or tonight. Chance for a few light showers tomorrow and Thursday. These look to favor southern Buenos Aires, west and north Cordoba and north Santa Fe. Little elsewhere in the region during this period. Temperatures average above normal during this period. High temperatures likely range from the low 80s to the low 90s F (28-34 C).

Dry or with only a few light showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures turn cooler or much cooler during this period.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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