DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak blocking ridge over eastern Alaska extending back into northeast Siberia. A ridge over western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending into western Greenland. This is a mild/cool pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge over the west coast states. A strong trough over the Rockies and Plains and a weak ridge over the eastern U.S. Subtropical high pressure centered over the west-central coast of Mexico dominate the Gulf of Mexico and most of Mexico except the northwest.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days. Fair-poor agreement days 8-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run of the U.S. model which is more of a compromise between the two models. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over Alaska.

A weak ridge over northwest Canada and a trough over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for much of southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the south-central U.S. and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. Most of the precipitation with this pattern will be under the trough in the south-central U.S. with could include parts of the southern and eastern Midwest. Temperatures will be on the mild side due to a lack of cold air in Canada.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal northwest, near to below normal south and east days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal. The northern plains will see mostly above normal temperatures. Precipitation mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...83 AT FORT LAUDERDALE FL AND MYERS AND NAPLES FL LOW SUN...24 BELOW ZERO AT WEST YELLOWSTONE GATE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...SHREVEPORT LA 1.62 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first 2-3 days of the outlook period, fair agreement during the last couple of days.

I favor a compromise between the models as it concerns the end of the period.

The northern branch of the jet stream remains mostly north of the U.S. region with above normal heights forecasted for much of southern and central Canada and the northern U.S. regions. This is an above normal temperature pattern for much of the US and south and central Canada. The southern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough moving across the southern plains and into the Midwest during the first part of the outlook period. This trough does not appear to have much, if any, moisture associated with it. Today's European model shows a secondary trough dropping southward over the Rockies before moving over the southwest plains later in the outlook period. This model shows some increase in shower activity for the southern plains due to this secondary trough. The U.S. model has the secondary trough drop southward over the eastern plains before merging with the first trough and moving across the Midwest and into the eastern US. Moisture associated with the secondary trough on the US model is mainly in the eastern US.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA: Heavy to very heavy weekend rain may mean flooding for some Soft Red Winter Wheat fields in the area from the southeast Midwest to the Delta.

This maintains adequate to surplus soil moisture and is considered neutral to somewhat favorable for this crop...except in areas of severe flooding. Drier, warmer weather during much of the 10 day period will be more favorable. Snow in the west Midwest region may cause transportation delays for hogs today before conditions improve again tomorrow.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): Snow, Ice and cold during the weekend period increased stress to livestock and impacted travel through southwest and some south-central areas. Conditions for livestock and travel should improve early this week. Heavy rain and possible severe flooding may be somewhat unfavorable in some wheat fields of the southeast to south-central area. A more favorable weather pattern for wheat during much of the 10 day period.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Episodes of rain and showers will favor development of earlier planted corn and soybeans through south and east-central crop areas.

Some delay to planting is possible. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers help improve conditions for soybeans in Mato Grosso as well during this period.

ARGENTINA (Wheat/Corn/Soybeans): A drier, warmer trend is expected during the next 7 days. Soil moisture and temperatures will favor developing crops during this period while soils slowly dry out. Mostly favorable weather for planting during this period.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Moderate to locally heavy rain and snow has occurred recently in Ukraine, Belarus, South Russia, western areas of Central Region and in the Black Soils Region. Precipitation will help to ease drought conditions somewhat but it is unlikely that crop condition would improve at this late date. This crop remains vulnerable to increased winter kill as it is poorly establish and there is uneven germination and emergence. The eastern areas of Central Region Russia and the Volga valley region continue quite dry at this time. Temperatures while cold at times are not expected to be very cold during the ten day period. Snow may occur through central and south areas early in the period.

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SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): Scattered showers and thundershowers were reported in many key maize and sugarcane growing areas early last week. This likely encouraged increasing planting activity for maize and will favor development of sugarcane. Hot temperatures redeveloped at the end of the week but it cooled off again during the weekend. Episodes of hot temperatures with limited rain chances threatens these crops during this season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Moderate precipitation, 0.25-0.75 inch, occurred through northern Missouri during the weekend period. Scattered light precipitation in southeast Nebraska, southern and eastern Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal during the weekend.

EAST: Rain, 1.00-2.00 inches and locally heavier, occurred through southern and east-central Illinois, southern and central Indiana and western Kentucky during the weekend period. Scattered precipitation, 0.25-1.00 inch, through Ohio during this time. Scattered light precipitation elsewhere in the region, except it was drier in southern Wisconsin, western Michigan and extreme northern Illinois. Temperatures averaged below normal northwest, above to near normal southeast.

Forecast...

WEST: Light to locally moderate snow, ice and rain today and tonight. Lingering snow showers or light snow during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Snowfall of 4 inches or more is possible today, especially through north and northwest areas.

Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday and Saturday.

EAST: Rain near or just south of the Ohio river today. Light precipitation, up to 0.50 inch melted, through northwest areas today into tonight. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Rain and thunderstorms, 1.00-3.50 inches and locally heavier, through east and south Oklahoma, central and east Texas during the weekend period.

Precipitation, 0.25-1.00 inch, through east Kansas and north-central Oklahoma during this time. Light precipitation, 0.10-0.40 inch, in south-central Kansas, the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Little elsewhere in the region. Snow and ice was reported in west Texas, west Oklahoma and south-central Kansas during the period. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal, mainly due to well below normal afternoon highs.

Forecast: Scattered light precipitation favors north-central and northeast areas today into tonight. Drier tomorrow. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation developing during Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, occurred during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal in Mato Grosso, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers today. Scattered thundershowers linger in east and south areas tomorrow. Drier during Wednesday. Tempertaures average near to below normal today, near to above normal north and near to below normal south tomorrow, near to above normal Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers may favor MGDS during Thursday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop in Mato Grosso and Goias Friday or Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.30-1.50 inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, through Parana, east and north Santa Catarina during the weekend period. Scattered light showers elsewhere in the region during this period. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers through Parana and Santa Catarina today through Wednesday. Mainly dry in RGDS today and Tuesday.

Scattered showers may occur in northwest RGDS by Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal north and near to above normal south.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Thursday and Friday.

Showers may linger in the north, drier south, during Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Argentina (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered light showers were reported in eastern and southern Buenos Aires early in the weekend period. Isolated light showers in Cordoba later in the weekend. Little elsewhere in the area. Temperatures averaged above normal southwest, below normal southeast and northwest, near normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring southwest and west areas, today through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southern and western areas Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal from northern Buenos Aires and Santa Fe to Cordoba. A little more variable in La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio