DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This is a cool/cold pattern for central and western Canada, mild in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the southwest U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days. Fair-poor agreement days 6-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run of the U.S. model which is more of a compromise between the two models. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over north-central and northeast Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This will be a mild/warm pattern across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge in the interior western U.S. and a trough in the eastern U.S. Most of the significant storminess with this pattern will be under the trough in the east. It will be drier in the central U.S. Temperatures will be on the mild side due to a lack of cold air in Canada.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east during the next 5 days, near to below normal all areas days 6-10. The southern plains will see below normal temperatures during the next 6 days, near to above normal days 7-10. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...87 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW THU...16 BELOW ZERO AT BUTTE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...WICHITA KS 1.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair agreement during the last couple of days.

A weak trough lingers from the east and south Midwest to the southeast plains early in the outlook period before moving into the eastern and then the southeastern US during the middle of the period. Today's US model shows a moderate short wave trough moving across the northern plains, the northern Midwest and into the Great Lakes region during the last part of the period. The European model is somewhat faster with this trough and also deeper with the trough by the time it gets to the northeast US at the end of the period. I favor a compromise between the models as it concerns this feature. The European model also shows a weak upper level trough moving over the southern Rockies during the last part of the outlook period. The US model shows this trough even weaker and mainly over north Mexico by day ten.

The models both show above or well above normal heights on the mean 8-10 day maps covering much of the central and east Canada area and central and east US regions. Neither model has much of a southern branch jet stream by that time and the northern branch jet is located over the far northern US or in southern Canada. This implies above or well above normal temperatures for many areas.

There also does not appear to be any significant precipitation during the 6-10 day period, except possibly over the southern Rockies to the Texas and north Mexico areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST/DELTA: Heavy to very heavy rain may mean flooding for some Soft Red Winter Wheat fields in the area from the southeast Midwest to the Delta during the next 3-4 days. This maintains adequate to surplus soil moisture and is considered neutral to somewhat favorable for this crop...except in areas of severe flooding. Drier, warmer weather during the 6-10 day period will be more favorable. Mixed precipitation in the west Midwest region during the next few days may cause minor transportation delays for hogs.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): An ice storm may increase stress to livestock in the west Texas/west Oklahoma area and to possibly southwest and south-central Kansas during the next 1-2 days. Transportation should be greatly impacted as well. Improving conditions later this weekend and for much of next week. Heavy rain and possible severe flooding may be somewhat unfavorable in some wheat fields of the southeast to south-central area during the short range period. A more favorable weather pattern for wheat and livestock during the 6-10 day period.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Episodes of rain and showers will favor development of earlier planted corn and soybeans through south and east-central crop areas.

Some delay to planting is possible. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers help improve conditions for soybeans in Mato Grosso as well during this period.

ARGENTINA (Wheat/Corn/Soybeans): Episodes of scattered thunderstorms favor developing wheat and earlier planted corn. Rainfall at the end of this week will maintain soil moisture for crops but may also cause some delay to the planting effort.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Moderate to locally heavy rain and snow has occurred recently in Ukraine, Belarus, South Russia, western areas of Central Region and in the Black Soils Region. Precipitation will help to ease drought conditions somewhat but it is unlikely that crop condition would improve at this late date. This crop remains vulnerable to increased winter kill as it is poorly establish and there is uneven germination and emergence. The eastern areas of Central Region Russia and the Volga valley region continue quite dry at this time. Temperatures while cold at times are not expected to be very cold during the ten day period.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): Scattered showers and thundershowers have been reported in many key maize and sugarcane growing areas during the past week.

This will likely encourage increasing planting activity for maize and will favor development of sugarcane. Hot temperatures redeveloped Wednesday and Thursday. Hot weather eases again during Friday with a new cold front in the area. Despite recent rain more rain is needed to support favorable development of maize and sugarcane, especially during periods of hot temperatures.

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EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Rain, 0.50-2.00 inches and locally heavier, occurred through eastern and southern Iowa and northern Missouri during the past 48 hours. Scattered precipitation, 0.10-0.40 inch, through eastern Nebraska, west and north-central areas of Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Drier elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Thursday morning, below normal northwest and well above normal southeast during the afternoon.

EAST: Precipitation, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, through southern Wisconsin, Illinois, northwest Indiana and southern Michigan during the past 48 hours. Precipitation was mostly rain. Drier elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

WEST: Rain and showers mainly through northeast, central and south Missouri today and tonight. Light mixed precipitation through northwest Missouri and in extreme southeast Iowa during this time. Drier elsewhere in the region. Mostly dry Saturday and early Sunday. Light precipitation may develop through southern and eastern areas later Sunday. Temperatures average below normal west and north and above normal southeast today, below normal Saturday and early Sunday, warmer later Sunday.

Light to locally moderate precipitation, 0.10-0.50 inch, during Monday. A little light snow or snow showers during Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

EAST: Rain or showers through southern, central and northeast areas today and through southern areas again tomorrow. Rain or showers may linger near the Ohio river Sunday as well. Rainfall totals of 1.00-3.00 inches can be expected south of a line extending from Saint Louis to Cincinnati. Moderate rainfall totals through northeast and central areas and little through the northwest.

Temperatures average above normal during this period, except possibly cooler for a time through northwest areas.

Light to locally moderate snow or rain changing to snow northwest and showers elsewhere in the region Monday. Snow showers north and fair otherwise Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Rain, 0.75-2.50 inches and locally heavier, through eastern Kansas, east and central Oklahoma and northeast Texas mainly during the 48 hour period...mostly during the past 24 hours. Rain, freezing rain and snow, 0.25-1.00 inch, through south-central Kansas during this time. Rain, Freezing Rain and Snow, 0.10-0.50 inch, through southwest and central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Light or very light precipitation elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Thursday morning, above normal east and south-central areas and below normal elsewhere in the region Thursday afternoon.

Forecast: Episodes of rain and thunderstorms, locally very heavy, through east and south-central Oklahoma, central and northeast Texas today and Saturday.

Flooding is likely within these areas. Snow and Freezing rain through south-central and southeast Kansas, west and north-central Oklahoma and west Texas during this time. Severe icing may occur with the highest risk in west Texas, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, northwest and a part of north-central Oklahoma and a portion of south-central Kansas. Dry or with only a little light precipitation elsewhere in Kansas and Colorado during this time. Scattered light precipitation favors the east and north areas during Sunday. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

Light to moderate snow or rain through northeast areas early Monday, dry later in the day. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.25 inch (6-32 mm) and locally heavier, occurred in the region early in the 48 hour holiday period.

Isolated thundershowers favoring east and south areas late in the period.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal north, near to below normal south.

Forecast: Dry or with only isolated afternoon or evening thundershowers today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the south and west and spread through the northeast during the weekend. Temperatures average near to above normal today, mainly near normal during the weekend.

Scattered showers and thundershowers during Monday. Scattered thundershowers favoring east and south areas Tuesday and south areas again Wednesday.

Temperatures average mostly near normal during this period.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Scattered thundershowers were over northern Parana early in the 48 hour holiday period. Later in the period scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier moved through northern RGDS and Santa Catarina.

Temperatures averaged above normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in the south and spread north today and tonight. Scattered thundershowers linger over Parana during Saturday. Showers during Sunday should favor east and north Parana, drier elsewhere in the region Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to above normal north, during this period.

Daily chances for scattered showers in Parana Monday through Wednesday.

Drier in RGDS during this time. Temperatures average near to below normal.

Argentina (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Only a few light showers, favoring the western areas, early in the 48 hour holiday period. Later in the period and overnight last night we saw scattered showers and thundershowers develop in the west and spread east.

Rainfall with these showers appears to have been locally heavy. Temperatures averaged near to below normal Thursday.

Forecast: Heavy thunderstorms linger over northeast locations today. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers elsewhere in the east and in some central areas today or tonight. Drier tomorrow. Dry Sunday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period, possibly much cooler for a time.

Chance for mostly light showers over La Pampa, southern and a little of central Buenos Aires Monday through Wednesday. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average above normal from northern Buenos Aires northward during this period. Southern areas may be somewhat cooler Monday and Tuesday before turning warmer again Wednesday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio