DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a mild/cool pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough along the west coast of the U.S. A broad, weak ridge over the central U.S. and a trough along and off the east coast of the U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over west central Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days. Fair-poor agreement days 6-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run of the U.S. model with is more of a compromise. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over eastern Canada. This will be a mild/warm pattern for western Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern U.S. early in the period moving into the central U.S. and a ridge in the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. This will be a stormy weather pattern for southern and eastern portions of the central U.S. due to the track of these systems tapping into available gulf moisture under the trough aloft. Temperatures will be variable with this pattern warmer out ahead of these systems, cooler behind them. The coolest bias will be in the southern U.S. due to the unsettled conditions. The mildest weather relative to normal will be in the northern plains due to the warm bias to the pattern in the northern branch of the jet stream over western Canada.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The southern plains will see above normal temperatures early in the period, mostly below normal thereafter. Precipitation near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall mostly above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...84 AT SAN DIEGO (MIRAMAR) CA

LOW MON...15 BELOW ZERO AT MOOSE WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EST...PORTLAND ME 0.27 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement later in the period. I am using a little more of today's US model.

A moderate to somewhat strong upper level trough is expected to be over the western US early in the outlook period. The US model shows this trough tracking east across the plains and the western Midwest before lifting northward through the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. This trough is shown strengthening as it moves east during this period. There appears to be a significant risk for stormy weather to occur with this trough as it comes east. This could mean another major snow/wind event for the western and northern Midwest at around December 1st. It may also mean another rain or thunderstorm event for the south and east-central plains, the south and east Midwest and the northern Delta. The European model shows a similar movement on this system but is somewhat slower and not as deep with the upper level trough. It is not clear how much cold weather would follow this strong trough. The US model does not feature a lot of very cold weather behind the trough while the European model is somewhat colder but still not very cold.

The US model shows a trailing trough moving from the central plains across the middle Miss river valley at the end of the period. The trough does not look to be very strong. The European model has a somewhat deeper trough moving over the western Midwest at day ten. I favor the US model during this period as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST: Wet weather will favor soft red winter wheat in the east and south Midwest during this period. Rain and some snow may impact transportation at times.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): Wet weather and no severe cold conditions will favor winter wheat, especially through eastern and southern growing areas.

BRAZIL: (Soybeans/Corn): Episodes of rain and showers will favor development of earlier planted corn and soybeans through south and east-central crop areas.

Some delay to planting is possible. A period of warmer, drier weather in RGDS (until the next rain event) will favor mature wheat and wheat harvesting.

Episodes of scattered showers help ease stress to soybeans in Mato Grosso but more widespread rain and cooler temperatures is still needed.

ARGENTINA (Wheat/Corn/Soybeans): Episodes of scattered thunderstorms favor developing wheat and earlier planted corn. Rainfall, especially later this week, will maintain soil moisture for crops but while also causing some delay to the planting effort.

UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Wheat): Recently moderate to locally heavy rain and snow has occurred in Ukraine, Belarus, South Russia, western areas of Central Region and in the Black Soils Region. Precipitation will help to ease drought conditions somewhat but it is unlikely that crop condition would improve at this late date. This crop remains vulnerable to increased winter kill as it is poorly establish and there is uneven germination and emergence. The eastern areas of Central Region Russia and the Volga valley region continue quite dry at this time. Temperatures while cold at times are not expected to be very cold during the ten day period. Significant precipitation is possible at times.

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SOUTH AFRICA (Maize/Sugarcane): Scattered showers and thundershowers have been reported in many key maize and sugarcane growing areas during the past week into this past weekend. This will likely encourage increasing planting activity for maize and will favor development of sugarcane.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, above normal south.

EAST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to near normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today. Showers and light rain develops favoring east and south areas Wednesday or Wednesday night. Moderate to locally heavy rain favors east and south areas during Thursday. Rain may change to snow before ending late Thursday or during Thursday night. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal Wednesday. Colder weather moves in during Thursday, beginning in the northwest and spreading east and south.

Drier during Friday. Light rain or showers favoring southern and eastern areas during Saturday. Light to locally moderate snow and rain during Sunday.

Temperatures average below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

EAST: Mostly dry today and early Wednesday. Chance for a little light rain or showers northwest, continued dry elsewhere in the region, late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Rain or showers favoring western and northern areas Thursday.

Temperatures average near to below normal today, above normal tomorrow and Thursday.

Light rain or showers favors east and south areas during Friday. Heavier rain or showers and thundershowers favoring southwest, central and east areas Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures average above to near normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Precipitation near to above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to near normal south, near to above normal north.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and early Wednesday. Chance for a few light showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Chance for rain or showers and thundershowers favoring east and south areas during Thursday. Rain may chance to snow in some north and west areas. Temperatures average above normal today and Wednesday. Colder weather develops during Thursday.

Additional rain or showers and thundershowers through southern and east-central areas during Friday or Saturday. Chance for rain or snow through west-central areas during this time. Drier during Sunday. Temperatures below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Precipitation should average near to above south, near to below normal north.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms were indicated in southeast Goais and southern MGDS yesterday or last night. Only a few isolated to widely scattered thundershowers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs mostly 91-99F (33-37C).

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers in MGDS and Goais during today through Thursday, some of this activity could be heavy. Isolated to widely scattered showers through Mato Grosso during this period.

Temperatures average near to above normal.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers continue in the region during Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms in Parana and eastern Santa Catarina yesterday or last night. Mainly dry in RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, above normal south.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers in Parana today and Wednesday, possibly favoring northern areas. Dry or with only a few light showers during Thursday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers in RGDS today through Thursday. Temperatures average above normal through RGDS during this period, near to above normal through Parana.

Moderate or heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in the south and spread north during Friday and Saturday. Drier Sunday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

Argentina (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Showers west-central areas yesterday or last night. Dry or with only isolated light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered light to locally moderate showers favor Cordoba and La Pampa today and Wednesday. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms move through central and east areas during Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Rain and thunderstorms may linger in the east, drier west, during Friday.

Mainly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio