DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over north-central and northeast Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough over the eastern pacific and Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. Subtropical high pressure is located over northwest Mexico and the south-central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature some weak ridging over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough up near the pole extending southward into north-central and northeast Canada and Greenland. This will be a mild/warm pattern for much of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the vicinity of the west coast of the U.S. A weak trough over the central U.S. and a weak ridge along the east coast of the U.S. Subtropical high pressure will be located in the vicinity of the southeast Gulf of Mexico and Cuba. The trough in the central U.S. and the ridge along the east coast will allow for some increasing rainfall in the central U.S., especially the south-central US later in the period. Some colder weather during the 5 day period will give way to a return to milder weather during the 6-10 day period as Canada turns mild under more pacific flow.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall below normal during the next 7 days, below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east days 8-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10. Rainfall below normal. The southern plains will see above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Rainfall below normal during the next 7 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 8-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...107 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...18 AT DANIEL WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EDT...CINCINNATI OH and LOUISVILLE KY: 0.32 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are fair to good agreement today. A cool surface high will move east of the Midwest region very early in the 6-10 day period.

The return flow around the back side of this high will bring warm weather back into the Midwest during the middle of the period. A split trough system will develop over Canada and the southwest US early in the period. This split trough moves across the plains and Midwest regions during the middle to late part of the period. Temperatures continue warm ahead of this trough system but should turn cooler once the trough is east of the Midwest. Rainfall potential is higher with the passage of this system. The southern trough may steal moisture from the northern trough as it lags behind. This appears to be a somewhat wetter period from the southeast plains and the lower and middle Miss river valley to the Ohio river valley.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST: Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting corn and soybeans, at least for another 5-7 days. There is a chance for frost and light freeze conditions late in the 5 day period. However, this is not that unusual for this date. Rain chances may increase somewhat during the 6-10 day period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): More rain would benefit planting and developing winter wheat in most areas. Temperatures may turn cooler for a time later this week. The chance for rain may increase somewhat during the 6-10 day period but probably only for southeast to east-central areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS: No significant concern for the harvest activity at this time.

DELTA STATES: Favorable conditions for harvesting of soybeans and cotton. Rain is needed to support winter wheat planting and development.

BRAZIL: CENTER-WEST (Soybeans/Corn): A cold front has moved into the area early this week with a break from recent heat expected. The upper level ridge reforms over the area before too long with another extended dry and hot spell likely beyond the brief cool period. Rain is needed to support early planted crops and to encourage more widespread planting.

BRAZIL: SOUTH (Soybean/Corn/Wheat: Periodic heavy to very heavy rains continue to impact this region. Rain slows early planting of corn and soybeans and is unfavorable for wheat, especially for maturing wheat and wheat harvests.

BRAZIL, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais (Coffee, Sugarcane): A tendency for high pressure aloft limits the potential for needed seasonal rains at this time. It will also promote episodes of hot temperatures. Flowering coffee trees and developing sugarcane are somewhat at risk from this weather pattern.

AUSTRALIA (Wheat): Rain and cooler weather is needed to help ease stress to reproductive and filling winter wheat. Light showers were reported during the weekend period in eastern Victoria and southern NSW. Otherwise dry. Hot in the west and northeast, not as hot in the southeast.

UKRAINE, west and south RUSSIA (Winter Grains): Most have had a season ending hard freeze during the past week. This will limit development of recently planted winter grains and may burn back any emerged crops. Dryness is also impacting germination and early development of winter grains and has caused some farmers to delay the final planting effort. There appears to be some chance for needed rain and warmer temperatures over North Caucasus Russia and in southern west Ukraine during this week. There is little hope for rain in very dry areas of east Ukraine or in Russia north of the Caucasus region for at least another 7 days.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize): Hot, dry weather is likely leading to delays in the early planting effort at this time. A cold front is expected to produce showers in the area with a brief turn to cooler conditions during the next 1-3 days.

However, this does not appear to be the start of a regular rainfall pattern.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

EAST: Rain, 0.10-0.70 inch, occurred along and south of the Ohio river during the past 24 hours. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle during Sunday, favoring northern areas. Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, below normal east and near to above normal west Sunday. The coldest low temperatures likely range from the upper 20s to the low 30s during the weekend. Chance for frost and light freeze conditions.

EAST: Mostly dry today and Wednesday. Chance for a little light rain or showers, favoring northeast and far east areas, Thursday or Thursday night.

Temperatures average near to above normal.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal, possibly well below normal. Low temperatures likely fall into the low to middle 30s F. Local areas may see lows in the upper 20s. Frost and likely freeze conditions are possible during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Wednesday. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers during Thursday. Temperatures average above normal.

Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers during Friday through Sunday. Temperatures may turn somewhat cooler during Friday and early Saturday but it should turn warmer again later Saturday and during Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal west and northeast, near to above normal southeast.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Dry or with only isolated thundershowers, favoring eastern areas, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal in the west, above to well above normal east.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, warmer tomorrow, hot Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers through northern and eastern Parana during the past 24 hours. Sprinkles or very light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry during the daytime hours of today. Chance for light rain or drizzle over Parana and Santa Catarina overnight tonight. Showers and thundershowers develop in RGDS during Wednesday and continue during Thursday.

Temperatures average below normal today. Warmer in northern areas and continued cooler in the south during tomorrow and Thursday.

Dry or with only light showers or light rain favoring southern Parana during Friday and Saturday. Heavier rain or showers and thunderstorms redevelop in RGDS during Sunday or Monday. Temperatures average above normal north and near normal south Friday, above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. It should be fairly hot to start the period but it should turn cooler during the period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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