DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level charts show strong polar troughs over western Alaska, the eastern Gulf of Alaska, north-central Canada and in the Atlantic just south of Greenland. We see a strong short wave trough moving over the western Midwest at this time. Weak lows are indicated in the Pacific west of Baja and along the southeast U.S. coast. Subtropical ridge centers are in the Pacific well west of Baja, over north Mexico and Texas and in the Atlantic northeast of the Caribbean. We also note a strong high latitude blocking ridge over Scandinavia, otherwise only weak high latitude ridges are indicated.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the 6-10 day period today. A cool to very cool surface high moves across the Midwest region later in the 5 day and early in the 6-10 day period. The Midwest turns warmer again once the high reaches the east coast. A significant short wave trough is shown on both models moving over the Rockies and the plains regions before arriving in the Midwest during the early and middle part of the period. This trough shows signs of picking up some Gulf Moisture along the way and may lead to increasing rain chances for portions of the south and east plains and the Midwest regions. This is a somewhat new development within the past 24 hours and therefore is to be viewed with caution. However, model agreement on the feature does increase confidence somewhat so it has been taken into account for the forecasts issued below.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal in the west, near to above normal in the east. The central/southern plains will see temperatures at above to near normal during the 6-10 day period. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...105 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...25 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EDT...CHARLESTON SC 0.80 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the 6-10 day period today. A cool to very cool surface high moves across the Midwest region later in the 5 day and early in the 6-10 day period. The Midwest turns warmer again once the high reaches the east coast. A significant short wave trough is shown on both models moving over the Rockies and the plains regions before arriving in the Midwest during the early and middle part of the period. This trough shows signs of picking up some Gulf Moisture along the way and may lead to increasing rain chances for portions of the south and east plains and the Midwest regions. This is a somewhat new development within the past 24 hours and therefore is to be viewed with caution. However, model agreement on the feature does increase confidence somewhat so it has been taken into account for the forecasts issued below.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST: Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting corn and soybeans, at least for another 5-7 days. However, these is a chance for frost and light freeze conditions late in this period and there is a chance for some wet weather later in the 10 day period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): More rain would benefit planting and developing winter wheat in most areas. Little rain is expected during the next 7 days along with episodes of above to much above normal temperatures. There appears to be at least some chance for needed rains to occur in parts of the region during the 6-10 day period.

NORTHERN PLAINS: No significant concern for the harvest activity at this time.

DELTA STATES: Favorable conditions for harvesting of soybeans and cotton. Rain is needed to support winter wheat planting and development.

BRAZIL: CENTER-WEST (Soybeans/Corn): Very hot, mostly dry weather, continues to impact planting in Mato Grosso and Goias with significant stress to any early planted corn and soybeans. Weekend showers in Mato Grosso and MGDS may ease concerns somewhat. However, this week looks dry and very hot again for much of this region. This will impact planting and any early planted crops.

BRAZIL: SOUTH (Soybean/Corn/Wheat: Heavy to very heavy rains continue to impact this region. Rain slows early planting of corn and soybeans and is unfavorable for wheat, especially for maturing wheat and wheat harvests.

AUSTRALIA (Wheat): Rain and cooler weather is needed to help ease stress to reproductive and filling winter wheat. Light showers were reported during the weekend period in eastern Victoria and southern NSW. Otherwise dry. Hot in the west and northeast, not as hot in the southeast.

UKRAINE, west and south RUSSIA (Winter Grains): Most have had a season ending hard freeze during the past week. This will limit development of recently planted winter grains and may burn back any emerged crops. The dryness is also impacting germination and early development of winter grains and has caused some to delay the final planting effort. There appears to be some chance for needed rain and warmer temperatures over North Caucasus Russia and in southern west Ukraine during this week. There is little hope for rain in very dry areas of east Ukraine or in Russia north of the Caucasus region for at least another

7 days.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize): Hot, dry weather is likely leading to delays in the early planting effort at this time. A cold front is expected to produce showers in the area later this week with a brief turn to cooler conditions. However, this does not appear to be the start of a regular rainfall pattern.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Saturday, above to much above normal Sunday. Highs Sunday ranged from 79 to 98F, hottest in eastern Nebraska.

EAST: Light rain or showers occurred near and just south of the Ohio river very early in the weekend period. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today. Dry Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures cool to near or slightly below normal during this period.

A few light showers, favoring north and east areas, during Thursday. Drier Friday. Dry Saturday. Temperatures turn cooler or much cooler during this period.

EAST: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southeast and extreme east areas today or tonight. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today and early Tuesday, near normal later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

Sprinkles and a few light showers favoring north and east areas during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Scattered light showers, mostly 0.25 inch or less, occurred through southeast areas during the weekend period. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above normal Saturday, well above normal Sunday. Highs Sunday ranged mostly between 87 and 97F, coolest in northeast Colorado.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period, although likely a little cooler than it was Sunday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, cooler or much cooler Friday and Saturday...especially through eastern areas.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered light showers with locally heavy showers occurred in portions of Mato Grosso and MGDS during the weekend period. Temperatures turned cooler through west and south areas during the weekend. Temperatures continued fairly hot from eastern Mato Grosso through Goias.

Forecast: Chance for showers in MGDS today, dry elsewhere in the region today.

Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to well above normal today, above to well above normal Tuesday, well above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Brazil: Parana and RGDS (Corn, Soybeans, Winter wheat)

Summary: Thunderstorms, 1.50-2.50 inches (38-65 mm) and locally heavier, occurred through the region during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged below normal during this period.

Forecast: Chance for light to locally moderate showers in Parana today and Tuesday, drier in RGDS during this time. Showers, thunderstorms and rain develops in RGDS during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Tuesday, above normal north and near normal south during Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers through northern RGDS and southern Parana during Thursday into Friday. Drier again during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal north and near to above normal south during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal north, variable south, during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal north and above normal in RGDS.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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