DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge to the north of Alaska. A ridge over western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending southward into the north-central and northeast U.S. and eastward into Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for western Canada, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska/eastern pacific. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over northern Mexico and a flat ridge over the southeast U.S. The centers of subtropical high pressure are located off the coast of southern California and over the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over western Canada and eastern Alaska. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada extending southeastward into the northeast U.S. and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will be a warm pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough over the southwest U.S. and a weak ridge over the south-central and southeast U.S.

Subtropical high pressure will be located over the southwest atlantic. The position of the trough over the northeast U.S. will be far enough to the east to keep any significant storminess along or off the east coast. This will be a very dry pattern for the central U.S. with no inflow of gulf moisture. Any episodes of cold weather with this pattern will be mostly confined to the northeast U.S. under the trough. Most of the central U.S. will be on the mild/warm side.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall below normal. The northern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal. The southern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal. The Delta states will see mostly above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...105 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...21 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EDT...MIDLAND ODESSA TX 1.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, only fair agreement during the last couple of days. I am using a little more of today's US model as it concerns the end of the period but there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

The first part of the period will feature upper level ridging and above normal heights over western Canada and the northwest US with a strong polar trough and surface storm located over north-central Canada and centered just north of Hudson bay. This suggests colder weather moving from the Arctic circle southward into north Canada during this period. The bottom of the trough reaches to the Great Lakes region by Friday of next week which may mean somewhat cooler weather would move to the northwest Midwest areas by that time.

High pressure surface and aloft over the US keeps the main crop areas mostly dry during this time Frame.

The US model shows a short wave trough developing west of the parent low in northwest Canada and moving south-southeast towards the north-central US areas at the end of the outlook period. A surface high forms just behind this digging trough and suggests a turn to somewhat colder conditions is possible from the north plains to the west Midwest at day 9 or 10. The cold front associated with this new high moves into the southern US during that time but with high heights aloft this front it not expected to produce much rainfall.

The European model does not show the secondary trough over northwest Canada until day ten and the second cold surface high associated with this trough is still very far north at that time. This model suggests only somewhat cooler weather for southern Canada and the northern US regions at the end of the period associated with the first high lingering in the area at that time. The European model also shows a significant trough within the southern branch of the jet stream moving across the Rockies and into the plains at the end of this period. If verified this would suggest a higher chance for significant shower activity over the central and southern winter wheat belt but probably not until about day 10.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST: Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting corn and soybeans, at least for another 7 days.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Wheat): No significant concerns for the harvests at this time.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting corn and soybeans, at least for another 7 days.

DELTA STATES: Favorable conditions for harvesting of soybeans and cotton. Rain is needed to support winter wheat planting and development.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): More rain would benefit planting and developing winter wheat in most areas. Little rain is expected during the next 7 days along with episodes of above to much above normal temperatures. The chance for rain on today's European model is interesting but it is very far out into the period and is therefore to be viewed with caution. It is not yet supported on the US model.

AUSTRALIA (Wheat): Rain and cooler weather is needed to help ease stress to reproductive and filling winter wheat. West Australia wheat areas should turn cooler with a few showers in the area today and Saturday but likely turns hotter and drier again later in the weekend and early next week. East Australia wheat areas should see some scattered light showers during the weekend into Monday with cooler temperatures developing. Warm to hot weather and drier again during the middle to late part of next week.

MATO GROSSO/GOIAS BRAZIL (Soybeans): Very hot, mostly dry weather, continues to impact planting in Mato Grosso and Goias with significant stress to any early planted corn and soybeans. Showers may help somewhat, especially in Mato Grosso, during the weekend but with the ridge returning next week this added moisture will be quickly depleted. Showers in MGDS, Parana and RGDS favor any early planted soybeans...especially in MGDS and Parana. Recent heavy rains in RGDS likely means delays to planting soybeans and corn and is also unfavorable for maturing wheat and any early wheat harvesting.

UKRAINE, west and south RUSSIA (Winter Grains): The early season cold snap continues. Most have had a season ending hard freeze this week. This will limit development of recently planted winter grains and may burn back any emerged crops. The dryness is also impacting germination and early development of winter grains and has caused some to delay the final planting effort. There appears to be some chance for needed rain and warmer temperatures over North Caucasus Russia and in west Ukraine and Belarus during the 5 to 7 day forecast period. There is little hope for rain in very dry areas of east Ukraine or in Russia north of the Caucasus region for at least another 7 days.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize): Mostly dry weather and hot temperatures during the next 5 days. This likely means delays to the early planting effort for maize and is typical during El Nino years. Longer range charts suggest a chance for cooler weather and a few showers developing but this is somewhat uncertain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: A little light rain or drizzle, mostly 0.10 inch or less, occurred in Nebraska, northwest and central Missouri during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only a brief light shower or two elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

EAST: Showers and rain, 0.10-0.50 inch, occurred through northeast Wisconsin, northwest and central Michigan during the past 24 hours. Showers, mostly 0.25 inch or less, were reported in central and northeast Illinois, northern Indiana and a little of northern Ohio during this time. Dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today, above to well above normal Saturday, well above normal Sunday. The high temperatures may reach to near 90F during the weekend period, compared with normals in the low to middle 60s.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

EAST: Chance for sprinkles and a few light showers near or just south of the Ohio river today, drier elsewhere in the region. Mostly dry Saturday and Saturday. Temperatures average near normal this afternoon and during Saturday, above normal again during Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring east and south areas during Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal in the west and south areas, near normal in northeast locations.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing during Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, well above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers, favoring eastern areas, Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period but not as warm as the weekend will be.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal in the west, near to below normal east. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Scattered showers, 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier, occurred through northwest, central and southeast Kansas yesterday or last night.

Sprinkles and very light showers, mostly les than 0.10 inch, occurred elsewhere in Kansas, through southern Nebraska and the Texas Panhandle during this time.

Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Chance for light showers in southeast and far south areas today, drier elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures cool to near normal for this afternoon and early Saturday. Warmer again later Saturday, much warmer Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures turn somewhat cooler during Monday and early Tuesday. Warmer again later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Dry or with only isolated light showers in MGDS during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to much above normal. High temperatures yesterday ranged from 90 to 104 F (32-40 C), hottest over Mato Grosso.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers over MGDS today through Sunday. This activity may become locally heavy. A few light to locally heavier showers may also develop in west and south areas of Mato Grosso during the weekend. Drier weather continues for eastern Mato Grosso and for Goias. Hot or very hot again today, especially through north and east areas. The south and west areas turn cooler during the weekend. The northeast areas remain hotter during the weekend.

A few light showers may linger over MGDS during Monday. Drier elsewhere in the region Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal south and above to well above normal north during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal north and above to near normal south during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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