DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough between Siberia and Alaska. A weak ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada, and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending eastward across Greenland. This is a warm pattern in western Canada, mild/cool central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the west coast states. A trough over northern Mexico and the interior southwest states. A weak ridge over the south-central U.S. and a weak trough in the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a trough between Siberia and Alaska. A ridge over western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will be a warm pattern for western Canada, variable central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The position of the trough will be far enough to the east to keep any significant storminess along or off the east coast. This will be a very dry pattern for the central U.S. Any episodes of cold weather with this pattern will be mostly confined to the eastern U.S. under the trough. Most of the central U.S. will be on the mild/warm side with very warm weather in the western U.S.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall below normal. The northern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal. The southern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...97 AT DEATH VALLEY CA AND PALM SPRING CA AND THERMAL CA LOW WED...20 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN AND EMBARRASS MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM EDT...SEATTLE WA 0.39 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period and somewhat different than was indicated yesterday. We appear to be heading into a period with a little more amplitude in the pattern, especially as it concerns the 8-10 day period. This would feature ridging over western North America as far north as southeast Alaska and a mean trough over the east.

This suggests somewhat cooler weather for the central and east Canada region and possibly into the north and east Midwest and Great Lakes regions of the U.S., at least for a time. This is somewhat different than recent trends have indicated and is to be viewed with caution. In either case this remains a drier or much drier than normal pattern for the key US and Canada growing areas.

There is still no high-latitude blocking on the maps today. This may mean that any cool or somewhat cold weather would not last long as the trough is allowed to lift northward again beyond day ten. However, the US model that does go out to 16 days does not yet show this northward movement of the yet stream.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST: Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting corn and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Wheat): No significant concerns for the harvests at this time.

NORTHERN PLAINS: Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting corn and soybeans.

DELTA STATES: Favorable conditions for harvesting of soybeans and cotton. Rain is needed to support winter wheat planting and development.

EAST COAST: Recent heavy to torrential rains and severe flooding likely impacts harvesting and may lead to losses in the Carolinas and Virginia. Drier weather during this period should help the clean up effort and slowly ease the flooding risk.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): More rain would benefit planting and developing winter wheat in most areas. Little rain is expected during the next 7 days along with episodes of above to much above normal temperatures.

AUSTRALIA (Wheat): Rain and cooler temperatures is needed to help ease stress to reproductive to filling winter wheat at this time, following recent extended dry spells and episodes of hot temperatures. Showers may occur in eastern growing areas at the end of this week or this weekend, especially over central New South Wales, but probably not enough to reverse the recent drier trend.

Reports suggest that prospects for this wheat crop are still good following heavier rains prior to the dry spell but probably not as good as they could have been if timely showers were received instead of the current dry spell.

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MATO GROSSO/GOIAS BRAZIL (Soybeans): More rain is needed to support widespread soybean planting in the major growing areas of the Mato Grosso. Some rain is expected at the end of this week and during the weekend. However, we may also see a return to hot temperatures and drier conditions following this rain chance. Soil moisture should favor planting and early development in Parana and RGDS but wet conditions in these areas may slow planting progress somewhat.

UKRAINE, west and south RUSSIA (Winter Grains): Dry or mostly dry weather continues to impact germination and early development of winter grains and the final planting effort for at least another 7 days. However, there is some activity within the southern branch of the jet stream that could, at times, bring needed rains close to the North Caucasus Russia area. Colder temperatures will slow germination and early development of winter grains.

SOUTH AFRICA (Maize): Mostly dry weather and episodes of hot temperatures during the next 7 days. This likely means delays to the early planting effort for maize and is typical during El Nino years.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Light rain or showers moved through central areas of Minnesota overnight.

Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal north, above normal south.

EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast...

WEST: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring east and south areas today.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal today, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average well above normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

EAST: Dry early today. Chance for a few light showers, favoring north and west areas, late today or during tonight. Light showers linger in the southeast areas early Friday, dry again later Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today and early Friday, near normal later Friday and during Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Dry Tuesday.

Temperatures average well above normal Sunday and Monday. Cooler Tuesday but still likely above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during the first few days of the period, near to below normal during the last couple of days. Rainfall should average below normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Showers, mostly 0.20 inch or less, occurred through eastern areas mostly overnight. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal through west and south areas, near to below normal through the northeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures turn somewhat cooler through eastern areas today and tonight, warmer again during Friday, very warm Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal in western areas today through Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers during Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Sunday, above to near normal Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, possibly dropping below normal for brief periods. Rainfall below to near normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Showers and light rain, 0.10-0.40 inch and locally heavier, occurred in southwest Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and the western portion of the Texas Panhandle yesterday or last night. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal, except that the afternoon highs were below normal in areas with light rain yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for light showers, mostly 0.25 inch or less, during tonight and early Friday. These should favor southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Drier again later Friday. Dry Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday, above normal Saturday.

Rainfall below normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS, Goais, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly

90 to 96F (32-36C).

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Scattered showers and thundershowers through MGDS and the southwest portion of Mato Grosso during Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers in northwest Mato Grosso during this time. Mostly dry through eastern Mato Grosso and Goias. Temperatures average above to well above normal today. Cooler in MGDS and continued hotter elsewhere in the region during Friday and Saturday.

Chance for scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso and MGDS during Sunday into Monday. Mainly dry in Goias during this time. Dry or with only a few light showers Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal southwest and above normal elsewhere in the region Sunday and Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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Joel Burgio