Technically Speaking Blog
Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets
Corn (Futures): The March contract closed at $3.70, 27cts lower on the monthly chart. Despite the lower close the major (long-term) trend remains up. The sell-off since the December high of $4.17 has resulted in a test of support near $3.67 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the rally from the October 2014 low of $3.18 1/4. March corn is expected to test next support at the 61.8% retracement level of $3.56 during February.
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Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.44, down 20 cents for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up. The sell-off since the December high of $3.80 has resulted in a test of support at $3.47, the 33% retracement level of the uptrend from $2.81 (October 2014). The NCI.X is expected to test the 50% retracement level of $3.31 during February.
Soybeans (Futures): The March contract closed at $9.61, 62.50cts lower on the monthly chart. Monthly stochastics have turned neutral again, setting the stage for a possible test of the previous low of $9.04 from October 2014. The bullish key reversal established that month remains in effect meaning the major (long-term) trend is up.
Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.13, down 55cts for the month. Monthly stochastics have turned neutral, indicating the major (long-term) trend is now sideways. Support is at $8.50 (low from October 2014) with resistance at $10.08 (high from November 2014).
SRW Wheat (Futures): The March Chicago contract closed at $5.07 3/4, 87cts lower on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is now sideways following a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the oversold level of 20%. This could lead to a test of support at the previous low of $4.66 1/4 (September 2014).
Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.73, down 84cts for the month. A bearish crossover above the oversold level of 20% by monthly stochastics indicates the major (long-term) trend has turned sideways between the low of $4.25 (September 2014) and high of $6.23 (December 2014).
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Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.