DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

Cattle Paper Geared to Open Moderately Higher

(DTN file photo)

Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Live Equiv $135.76 - 0.06*
Hogs: Steady-$1 LR Futures: mixed Lean Equiv $ 76.79 - 0.84**




* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle buyer interest could slowly start to surface as early as today with short-bought packers mindful of the holiday break ahead. Yet it will be surprising if significant trade volume develops before Wednesday. Preliminary asking prices should be floated around $132-plus in the South and $200-plus in the North. Live and feeder futures should open moderately higher, lifted by residual buying interest, short-covering, and ideas of better beef demand waiting on the far side of Thanksgiving.

Hog buyers should resume work this morning with steady/weak bids. Although country receipts were on the light side on Monday, some are suggesting that processors have much of the short week's slaughter needs already in hand. Lean futures are likely to begin with mixed price action as lackluster traders position ahead of the holiday break.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) Cattle futures jumped significant higher yesterday on ideas that retailers and food managers would soon focus on attractive beef prices and the needs of late-year parties. Note that spot December live close above its 10-day moving average high for the first time since October 28. 1) The frozen stockpile of beef at the end of October was up 2.7% from September and 34.3% larger than a year ago. Beef on ice totaled 511.6 million pounds, above the average of trade guess of 504 million.
2) Though mixed from state to state (slighter higher in Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas, but smaller in Texas), the fed cattle offering looks generally smaller this week, possibly lending extra leverage to feedlot managers. 2) The U.S. dollar index hit a eight-month high on Monday thanks to ongoing interest rate speculation. This is more bad news for U.S. meat exports.
3) Pork stocks in freezers as of October 31 totaled 602.7 million pounds (i.e., 13% greater than the prior year), less than analysts had estimated and 8.1% below the previous month. 3) The pork carcass value slumped into the week with price pressure evident on all primals except the ham. Given that last week's hog kill of 2.4 million head was the largest since the week ending September 22, 2012, late November demand could continue to struggle in the face of formidable tonnage.
4) Nearby lean hog charts seemed to be in the processing of forming broad "U" bottoms, potentially attractive to more and more specs as supply fundamentals begin to look more manageable next month and early January. 4) The average price of pork at retail during October was $3.973 per pound, 5.4 cents higher than the month before and the highest since January.

Other Market News

CATTLE: (Crain Communication) -- When you're cruising the drive-thru, what matters more, how quickly you get your Big Mac or whether they remembered to hold the pickles?

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McDonald's Corp. is betting on the latter. In its latest comeback maneuver, the world's largest restaurant chain is switching up the outdoor ordering process to make it more personal, and hopefully more accurate. The new method — it's called "ask, ask, tell" in McDonald's speak — provides three opportunities to check that what the customer requested is what the customers gets.

That's crucial, because about 70 percent of sales are made to people who don't leave their vehicles. To make the experience more pleasant, the company has also asked restaurants to turn off prerecorded drive-thru greetings so that real-time workers say hello to customers instead. And then there's this: Employees should no longer fold over the tops of paper bags but will leave them open so contents can be inspected.

"They've got to get it right in the drive-thru because it touches so much of their business," said Peter Saleh, an analyst at BTIG Research. "Things are moving in the right direction."

Accuracy had become an issue, particularly after the menu grew unwieldy over the past five years with the addition of a slew of new offerings, such as honey mustard and chipotle barbecue snack wraps, and the introduction of limited-time specials like Mighty Wings. So over the summer, the chain removed more than half of 130 offerings from outdoor menu boards, highlighting just bestsellers. "Simplifying the drive- thru operation underpins everything else we're doing," Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook said on a conference call in October.

Since becoming CEO in March, amid the company's worst sales slump in more than a decade, Easterbrook has made waves, turning breakfast into an all-day thing, demanding toastier hamburger buns and experimenting with kale.

He's spearheaded initiatives to streamline kitchens, speed up service and improve order- precision. And his efforts got a boost last month when McDonald's announced a gain in U.S. sales after seven consecutive quarters of declines. Now the 48-year-old, who previously announced plans to cut costs and return more cash to shareholders, expects to reduce overhead expenses by $500 million a year.

But first, the basics. Service had slowed to the point that drive-thru waits in 2013 grew to their longest since at least 1998, according to a study by QSR magazine and Insula Research; 2013 is the most recent year for which data is available. That year, McDonald's got about 88 percent of its drive-thru orders right, better than some rivals, including Wendy's Co., but worse than Taco Bell and Chick-fil-A.

"We've got humans working in the drive-thru. There's just no way to automate that," said Dick Adams, a restaurant consultant in San Diego and a former McDonald's store owner.

Competitors are taking other routes. Starbucks Corp., a leader among fast-food companies with its mobile-ordering capabilities and rewards program, is introducing video screens at 2,400 of its U.S. drive-thru locations. The screens, which allow the person in the car to see the person in the store, are part of a push to use technology to improve efficiency and personalize service.

At McDonald's, ask, ask, tell started over the summer; it's optional for franchisees, who own about 90 percent of the chain's 14,350 U.S. stores. Here's how it works: After a customer orders, an employee repeats the full order and asks if it's correct, and the customer is asked again at the window where he or she pays. The tell comes when the food changes hands -- the employee reminds the customer what's in the bag.

"These actions continue to show how we are changing and building a better McDonald's," said company spokesman Jeff Mochal.

Time-consuming? Maybe, but Terry Smith, who owns three McDonald's restaurants in southern New Jersey, said he's seen order accuracy improve by 2 to 3 percentage points since his stores started using ask, ask, tell.

"You're probably going to add a couple seconds, which I don't think will be huge as long as you're creating a friendly experience — and getting the order right," Smith said. "Customers are getting the items that they want."

Smith recently turned off the impersonal recorded greeting in the one location of his that used it. Now staff greet customers directly and both parties appreciate the change, he said. "It creates at least a little, quick dialog that they both enjoy."

HOGS: (USDA) -- With less than 2 months left in 2015, USDA is projecting commercial pork production for the year at 24.5 billion pounds, a volume 7.3 percent greater than a year ago, when Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PEDv) reduced hog numbers.

The 2015 pork production estimate is 5.7 percent higher than production in 2013, before the significant onset of PEDv.

The annual production forecast incorporates a slightly smaller projection for fourth-quarter production compared with last month's forecast, due to lower than expected hog slaughter during the quarter.

Fourth quarter commercial pork production is expected to be 6.5 billion pounds, 5.4 percent greater than the same period a year ago. The fourth-quarter price of live equivalent 51-52 percent lean hogs is expected to average $46-$48.

For 2015, hog prices will likely average $50.82. For the first half of 2016, commercial pork production is expected to be nearly equal to the first half of 2015, at 12.1 billion pounds. First-quarter prices are expected to average $48-$50; second-quarter prices will likely average $50-$54.

John Harrington can be reached at feelofthemarket@yahoo.com
Follow John Harrington on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(CZ)

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